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Robin Hanson

Pioneered prediction markets (since 1988); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance; originated Great Filter hypothesis; authored The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain; 5,200+ citations

Current Role
Associate Professor of Economics
Born
1959
Age ~67

Expert Positions1 topic

TopicViewEstimateConfidenceDate
Takeoff SpeedGradualDecades to centuriesmedium2016

Board Seats1

Education

University of California, Irvine; University of Chicago; California Institute of Technology

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Quick Assessment

DimensionAssessment
Primary RoleAssociate Professor of Economics at George Mason University; Research Associate at Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
Major ContributionsPioneered prediction markets (1988-present); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance system; originated Great Filter hypothesis
Key PublicationsThe Age of Em (2016); The Elephant in the Brain (2018, with Kevin Simler); 90+ academic publications with 5,200+ citations
AI Safety StanceSkeptical of fast takeoff and existential risk scenarios; emphasizes gradual transitions allowing for testing and correction
Controversies2003 DARPA Policy Analysis Market cancellation; 2019 EA Munich disinvitation; characterized as "too far ahead of his time" and "America's creepiest economist"
SourceLink
Official Websitehanson.gmu.edu
Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

Links

Facts

5
People
Role / TitleAssociate Professor of Economics
Biographical
Notable ForPioneered prediction markets (since 1988); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance; originated Great Filter hypothesis; authored The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain; 5,200+ citations
Birth Year1959
EducationUniversity of California, Irvine; University of Chicago; California Institute of Technology
Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Hanson