Pioneered prediction markets (since 1988); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance; originated Great Filter hypothesis; authored The Age of Em and The Elephant in the Brain; 5,200+ citations
Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University; Research Associate at Future of Humanity InstituteOrganizationFuture of Humanity InstituteThe Future of Humanity Institute (2005-2024) was a pioneering Oxford research center that founded existential risk studies and AI alignment research, growing from 3 to ~50 researchers and receiving...Quality: 51/100, Oxford University
Major Contributions
Pioneered prediction marketsApproachPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100 (1988-present); invented Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR); proposed futarchy governance system; originated Great Filter hypothesis
Key Publications
The Age of Em (2016); The Elephant in the Brain (2018, with Kevin Simler); 90+ academic publications with 5,200+ citations
AI Safety Stance
Skeptical of fast takeoff and existential risk scenarios; emphasizes gradual transitions allowing for testing and correction
Controversies
2003 DARPA Policy Analysis Market cancellation; 2019 EA Munich disinvitation; characterized as "too far ahead of his time" and "America's creepiest economist"