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OECD What Happened to High-Risk Jobs

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Credibility Rating

4/5
High(4)

High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.

Rating inherited from publication venue: OECD

Relevant for AI safety researchers and policymakers interested in the socioeconomic consequences of automation; provides empirical grounding for debates about AI-driven labor displacement often discussed in governance and societal-impact contexts.

Metadata

Importance: 55/100working paperanalysis

Summary

This OECD publication examines the empirical outcomes for workers in jobs previously identified as highly susceptible to automation, assessing whether predicted job displacement actually materialized. It provides evidence-based analysis of how labor markets have adapted to technological change, informing debates about AI and automation's real-world employment impacts.

Key Points

  • •Tracks actual employment outcomes for jobs classified as high-risk of automation to compare predictions with reality
  • •Provides OECD-level empirical data on whether automation fears translated into measurable job losses across member countries
  • •Examines labor market adaptation mechanisms such as job transformation, task reallocation, and worker transitions
  • •Contributes to the evidence base for policymakers designing workforce and social protection responses to AI/automation
  • •Challenges or contextualizes earlier high-profile automation risk estimates (e.g., Frey & Osborne) with observed outcomes

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# What happened to jobs at high risk of automation?

Working paper

More info

[OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/serials/oecd-social-employment-and-migration-working-papers_g17270e7.html)

25 January 2021


[Download PDF](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2021/01/what-happened-to-jobs-at-high-risk-of-automation_ffdb138f/10bc97f4-en.pdf)

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## Abstract

This study looks at what happened to jobs at risk of automation over the past decade and across 21 countries.There is no support for net job destruction at the broad country level. All countries experienced employment growth over the past decade. Within countries, however, employment growth has been much lower in jobs at high risk of automation (6%) than in jobs at low risk (18%).

Low-educated workers were more concentrated in high-risk occupations in 2012 and have become even more concentrated in these occupations since then. In spite of this, the low growth in jobs in high-risk occupations has not led to a drop in the employment rate of low-educated workers relative to that of other education groups. This is largely because the number of low-educated workers has fallen in line with the demand for these workers.Going forward, however, the risk of automation is increasingly falling on low-educated workers and the COVID-19 crisis may have accelerated automation, as companies reduce reliance on human labour and contact between workers, or re-shore some production.

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