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GovAI - Export Controls and Export Promotion
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4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Centre for the Governance of AI
Published by the Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI), this paper is relevant to debates around semiconductor export controls (e.g., US chip restrictions on China) and how trade policy intersects with AI safety and geopolitical competition.
Metadata
Importance: 62/100policy briefanalysis
Summary
This GovAI research paper examines the use of export controls and export promotion policies as tools for AI governance, analyzing how governments can shape the international diffusion of AI technologies. It explores the tension between restricting dangerous AI exports and promoting beneficial ones, with implications for maintaining technological leadership and managing AI safety risks globally.
Key Points
- •Export controls can limit adversaries' access to advanced AI hardware and software, while export promotion can spread beneficial AI norms and standards.
- •Governments face tradeoffs between national security interests, economic competitiveness, and the global diffusion of AI capabilities.
- •Policy design must account for dual-use nature of AI technologies, where the same tools can serve both beneficial and harmful purposes.
- •International coordination on export control regimes may be necessary to prevent circumvention and maintain effectiveness.
- •Export policies interact with broader AI governance frameworks, including compute governance and semiconductor supply chain controls.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
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| Compute Governance | Concept | 58.0 |
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Export Controls and Export Promotion | GovAI
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How strategic promotion of American AI abroad can protect the homeland.
Washington has made it clear that retaining AI dominance over China is both an economic and national security imperative. In November 2024, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended a “Manhattan Project-like program” to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) before China. 1 Two months later, the Stargate project was announced, mobilizing $500 billion in private capital to strengthen American AI infrastructure and energy production. 2 President Trump’s January 23 Executive Order left no doubt: “It is the policy of the United States to sustain and enhance America’s global AI dominance.” 3
Alongside steps taken to strengthen the domestic AI industry, Washington has also imposed increasingly stringent controls on exports of AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. Initially formulated during President Trump’s first term, these restrictions have since expanded. 4 The second Trump administration is expected to tighten them further. 5
These two approaches – strengthening the domestic AI sector and securing key AI resources from Chinese access – form the backbone of America’s AI strategy. Yet, alone, they may not be enough to sustain American leadership in what is arguably the most consequential technology of our time.
Under President Trump, a third pillar must be established: strategic promotion — active efforts to position American AI and compute as the default for international markets critical to U.S. national security and economic competitiveness . This means financing compute infrastructure, providing training and technical assistance for AI adoption at scale, and securing trade agreements that encourage reliance on trusted American AI and cloud providers while enforcing strong security standards.
This approach complements the ‘strengthen and secure’ core of U.S. AI policy by proactively exporting and embedding key American AI technologies in strategically important parts of the world. Done right, strategic promotion can bolster America’s economic power, limit China’s ability to seize new markets, promote democratic values overseas, and forge international partnerships aligned with the U.S. vision for AI leadership and governance.
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Economics Date
June 13, 2025
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Sam Manning
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