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Metagame Conference Prediction Market - Manifold

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manifold.markets·manifold.markets/RickiHeicklen/will-the-metagame-conferen...

A minor Manifold prediction market about a specific conference; tangentially related to AI safety communities that use prediction markets for forecasting and coordination.

Metadata

Importance: 8/100otherreference

Summary

A Manifold Markets prediction market asking whether the Metagame Conference will take place as planned. This is a forecasting question about a specific event, with limited direct AI safety relevance beyond demonstrating prediction market mechanisms for event coordination.

Key Points

  • •Prediction market on Manifold platform forecasting whether the Metagame Conference will occur
  • •Demonstrates use of prediction markets for tracking real-world event outcomes
  • •Metagame conferences often focus on strategy, rationality, and coordination topics adjacent to EA/AI safety communities
  • •Manifold Markets uses play money, making it accessible for low-stakes forecasting practice

Cited by 1 page

PageTypeQuality
Lighthaven (Event Venue)Organization40.0

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Mar 15, 20263 KB
Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? | Manifold MANIFOLD Sign up Open options Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025? Ricki Heicklen 13 Ṁ1k Ṁ25k resolved Sep 17 Resolved YES 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL Metagame is a weekend conference about game design, strategy, narrative, and play currently scheduled for September 12-14, 2025. It's run by Arbor and is planned to take place at Lighthaven in Berkeley, California.

 

 Will it actually end up being September 12-14?

 

 If the conference happens on any of the dates included in September 12-14, 2025, this market will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO. (So, if it ends up just being the 13th and 14th, that's a YES, if it gets moved entirely off that weekend or cancelled it's a NO). 

 

 Note that the date has already changed a couple times, most recently from September 5-7 to September 12-14. 

 

 We have not signed any contracts with the venue yet as of 12/29/2024.

 This question is managed and resolved by Manifold. Market context Generate September 2025 Metagame Sign up Get 1,000 to start trading! 🏅 Top traders

 # Trader Total profit 1 Ṁ352 2 Ṁ261 3 Ṁ103 4 Ṁ72 5 Ṁ52 3 Comments 12 Holders 25 Trades Open options Sort by: Open options Newest Jay🔹 Open options @ mods (it happened)

 Jay🔹 Open options @ RickiHeicklen Did Metagame happen

 Ricki Heicklen bought Ṁ1,250 YES Open options @ RickiHeicklen We signed a contract with Lighthaven, and have secured a handful of speakers, so I think it's pretty likely to happen, barring major emergencies. Holy cow I am so excited.

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 Will there be a Metagame 2026? Isaac King 83% chance Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2026? chris (strutheo) 96% chance Will I participate in another MtG Regional Championship before 2027? Aryeh Zax 45% chance Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035? Timothy Currie 41% chance Will the Enhanced Games happen before 2028? Jake 80% chance Will https://www.humandirectedfutures.org/ conference run again in 2026? 2-COCHAIN STORK 50% chance Will Metacul

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Resource ID: 13ad2fbb03f60548 | Stable ID: ZDUxM2U1Mz