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Tipping the Scales: How Emerging AI Capabilities Could Disrupt the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance
webCredibility Rating
4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: CNAS
Published by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), this report is relevant for researchers and policymakers examining dual-use AI risks, particularly how offensive AI capabilities intersect with national security and critical infrastructure protection.
Metadata
Importance: 52/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
This CNAS report examines how advancing AI capabilities may shift the balance between cyber offense and defense, potentially giving attackers new advantages in exploiting vulnerabilities, automating attacks, and evading defenses. It analyzes the implications for national security, critical infrastructure, and existing cybersecurity frameworks. The report offers policy recommendations for governments and organizations to prepare for an AI-enabled cyber threat landscape.
Key Points
- •AI capabilities could automate and accelerate offensive cyber operations, lowering barriers to sophisticated attacks for a wider range of actors.
- •Defenders may struggle to keep pace as AI enables faster vulnerability discovery, more convincing phishing, and adaptive malware.
- •Critical infrastructure faces heightened risk as AI-assisted attacks could target energy, financial, and communications systems more effectively.
- •The report argues current cyber defense doctrines and governance frameworks may be inadequate for AI-augmented threat environments.
- •Policy recommendations include investment in AI-assisted defense tools, international norms, and improved public-private coordination.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Cyberweapons Risk | Risk | 91.0 |
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New CNAS Report Examines the Threat of Emerging AI Capabilities to Cybersecurity | CNAS Washington, September 23, 2025—A new report from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) examines how emerging artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities could disrupt the cyber offense-defense balance by disproportionately empowering attackers. In Tipping the Scales: Emerging AI Capabilities and the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance , author Caleb Withers analyzes the present impact of AI on cyber defense and offense and projects how future frontier AI capabilities could shape the offense-defense balance. The report finds that AI capabilities have historically benefited defenders, allowing them to rapidly scale solutions to counter new threats. However, future frontier models could disrupt this balance as increasingly autonomous systems potentially tip the scales toward attackers in dramatic and potentially dangerous ways. As competition between the United States and China intensifies and AI-enabled cyber capabilities advance, the urgency of anticipating and preparing for AI’s impact on future cyberattacks grows. The report calls on policymakers to: Double down on policies to shore up cybersecurity. Invest in AI research and development to differentially promote cyber defense. Strengthen evaluation of AI cyber capabilities and risks, including relevant U.S. government capabilities and authorities. Sufficiently resource the Bureau of Industry and Security to enforce AI-related export controls. Clarify federal regulation around reasonable care and liability for cyber harms from frontier AI. Promote information security with frontier AI developers. Promote global norms around liability from automated cyber operations. The future impact of AI-powered cyber threats is not predetermined. This report emphasizes the U.S. government’s crucial role in mitigating the most harmful AI-related impacts on cybersecurity and warns that, without intervention, increasingly advanced AI systems could give attackers a decisive and dangerous advantage. For more information or to arrange an interview with the report’s author, please contact Charles Horn at [email protected] . Technology & National Security Tipping the Scales This report examines how emerging AI capabilities could disrupt the cyber offense-defense balance.... Read More Author Caleb Withers Research Associate, Technology and National Security Program Caleb Withers is a research associate for the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He focuses on frontier artificial inte...
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