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RAND Corporation analysis
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4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: RAND Corporation
This RAND report on U.S.-Russia great-power competition is only tangentially relevant to AI safety; it may be referenced in discussions of geopolitical context for AI governance or great-power dynamics affecting international AI coordination.
Metadata
Importance: 28/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
This 2019 RAND Corporation report systematically analyzes U.S. strategic options for competing with Russia in the context of great-power competition, examining Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities. It evaluates policy options across ideological, economic, geopolitical, and military domains, concluding that economic measures—particularly boosting U.S. energy production and multilateral sanctions—offer the highest likelihood of success with manageable risks, while geopolitical and ideological approaches carry significant escalation risks.
Key Points
- •Russia's greatest vulnerability is its comparatively small economy, heavily dependent on energy exports, making it susceptible to energy market pressure and sanctions.
- •Economic measures (boosting U.S. energy production + multilateral sanctions) identified as most attractive options with highest success likelihood and lowest risk.
- •Geopolitical measures to bait Russia into overextension and ideological measures targeting regime stability carry significant escalation and blowback risks.
- •Most military options enhance U.S. deterrence and ally reassurance but few would directly extend Russia, as Moscow doesn't seek parity in most domains.
- •The report was later mischaracterized by Russian propaganda, prompting RAND to add an editorial note referencing Russia's 'firehose of falsehood' disinformation tactics.
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Authoritarian Tools | Risk | 91.0 |
| AI Development Racing Dynamics | Risk | 72.0 |
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Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground | RAND
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Extending Russia
Competing from Advantageous Ground
James Dobbins , Raphael S. Cohen , Nathan Chandler , Bryan Frederick , Edward Geist , Paul DeLuca , Forrest E. Morgan , Howard J. Shatz , Brent Williams
Research Published Apr 24, 2019
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Editor's Note: We encourage you to explore this report and its accompanying research brief . However, because Russian entities and individuals sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine have mischaracterized this research, we also encourage you to explore this helpful resource on Russia's “firehose of falsehood” approach to propaganda .
This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options). After describing each measure, this report assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood that measure could be successfully implemented and actually extend Russia. Most of the steps covered in this report are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counter-escalation. Some of these policies, however, also might prompt adverse reactions from other U.S. adversaries — most notably, China — that could, in turn, stress the United States. Ultimately, this report concludes that the most attractive U.S. policy options to extend Russia — with the greatest benefits, highest likelihood of success, and least risk — are in the economic domain, featuring a combination of boosting U.S. energy production and sanctions, providing the latter are multilateral. In contrast, geopolitical measures to bait Russia into overextending itself and ideological measures to undermine the regime's stability carry significant risks. Finally, many military options — including force posture changes and development of new capabilities — could enhance U.S. deterrence and reassure U.S. allies, but only a few are likely to extend Russia, as Moscow is not seeking parity with the U
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