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OWID Project - Good Judgment Inc.
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
This collaboration is relevant to AI safety insofar as rigorous forecasting methodologies inform predictions about transformative AI timelines and global risk, though the project itself focuses broadly on development metrics rather than AI safety specifically.
Metadata
Importance: 35/100organizational reportnews
Summary
Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus announce their first collaborative project, where Superforecasters and Pro Forecasters make identical predictions on 10 Our World In Data metrics spanning technological advances, global development, and social progress across time horizons from 1 to 100 years. The project, supported by a Future Fund grant, aims to compare forecasting methodologies and advance the science of human judgment forecasting.
Key Points
- •Two of the world's largest human forecasting communities (Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus) are collaborating for the first time to compare methodologies.
- •Forecasters will predict on 10 Our World In Data metrics covering technology, global development, and social progress with time horizons from 1 to 100 years.
- •A Future Fund grant supports the collaboration, including a public forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform.
- •The collaboration is designed to advance forecasting as a trusted decision-support tool for leaders in public and private sectors.
- •Superforecasters and Pro Forecasters make predictions independently on their respective platforms to enable methodology comparison.
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
| Metaculus | Organization | 50.0 |
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[Good Judgment Inc](https://goodjudgment.com/category/good-judgment-inc/ "Go to the Good Judgment Inc category archives.") \> Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus Launch First Collaboration
# Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus Launch First Collaboration
[Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/) and [Good Judgment Inc](https://goodjudgment.com/)are pleased to announce our first collaboration. Our organizations, which represent two of the largest human judgment forecasting communities in the world, will compare our results and methodologies in a project comprised of identical forecasting questions that ask about the future of 10 Our World In Data metrics. We plan to share insights, lessons learned, and analysis to contribute to the broader community and to the science of forecasting.
Cohorts of Superforecasters from[Good Judgment Inc](https://goodjudgment.com/) and Pro Forecasters from Metaculus will make predictions on their separate platforms on a set of 10 questions about technological advances, global development, and social progress on time horizons ranging from one to 100 years.
A Future Fund grant is supporting both organizations in producing these expert forecasts, as well as a[public tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/forecasting-Our-World-in-Data/) on the Metaculus platform, though this collaboration between Metaculus and GJI is distinct, separate, and voluntary.
“Our shared goal is advancing forecasting as a trusted method for leaders to make critical decisions,” said Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus. “We’re thrilled to be working with our partners at Good Judgment Inc. This is the first time two of the largest players in the field of forecasting have come together in the spirit of collaboration to compare methodologies and to advance the science of forecasting.”
“We’re excited to be partnering with Metaculus to combine our approaches to apply probabilistic thinking to an uncertain future and help individuals and organizations make better decisions about the future,” said Warren Hatch, Good Judgment’s CEO. “We look forward to building on this collaboration for Our World In Data.”
**_Good Judgment Inc_** _harnesses the wisdom of the crowd, led by Superforecasters, to quantify hard-to-measure risks for smarter strategic decisions for the private and public sectors._
**_Metaculus_** _is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events._
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