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Meet the Winners of the 2025 University Challenge
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Mixed(2)Mixed quality. Some useful content but inconsistent editorial standards. Claims should be verified.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Substack
Relevant to AI safety as a case study in epistemic practices and calibrated uncertainty reasoning; superforecasting methods are sometimes applied to AI risk and governance prediction questions.
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Importance: 22/100blog postnews
Summary
Good Judgment Project profiles the top three winners of its 2025 University Forecasting Challenge, where students competed globally making predictions on economic, political, and cultural topics. Winners share methodologies emphasizing base rate analysis, calibration, iterative updating, and systems thinking, crediting Phil Tetlock's Superforecasting as a key influence.
Key Points
- •Top winners from University of Edinburgh, BITS Pilani/IIT Madras, and University of Florida competed from August to December 2025 on GJ Open.
- •Common strategies included CHAMPS-KNOW framework, base rate calculation, monitoring current affairs, and frequent forecast updating.
- •All three winners cited Phil Tetlock's Superforecasting as foundational to their approach to uncertainty and calibration.
- •Winners emphasized deliberate practice and iterative refinement as key to improving forecasting accuracy over time.
- •The challenge covered diverse topics including economic indicators, political developments, and cultural events like literary prizes.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
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| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Meet the Winners of the 2025 University Forecasting Challenge
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Good Judgment Jan 27, 2026 4 2 Share From August to December 2025, students from universities around the world tested their forecasting abilities on GJ Open . The 2025 University Forecasting Challenge asked participants to make predictions on topics ranging from economic indicators and political developments to literary prizes, updating their forecasts as new information emerged.
We spoke with the top three finishers about their strategies, their struggles, and how the discipline of forecasting has shaped the way they think.
The Winners
Naraya Papilaya
University of Edinburgh | BSc Biological Sciences (Honours in Genetics)
An Indonesian third-year undergraduate student and trustee at the Edinburgh University Students’ Association. They enjoy researching macrosystems and are involved in student politics and policy development.
Saicharan Ritwik Chinni
BITS Pilani (Mathematics & Electronics) | IIT Madras (Data Science)
A recent graduate with a master’s degree in mathematics who completed thesis work at the Yale School of Public Health and is currently working on an independent startup idea.
Marcos Ortega
University of Florida | Honors Finance
A portfolio manager at Caimanes, a student-managed equity hedge fund, with a broad passion for markets and research. In his free time, he enjoys fire juggling, reading, and weightlifting.
The Interview
GJO: What first drew you to forecasting, and how did you hear about the University Forecasting Challenge?
Naraya: I picked up Phil Tetlock’s Superforecasting during lockdown and found its concepts fascinating. It was a little comforting amidst the global chaos. In 2025, forecasting became a way to test the accuracy of my models about the world. I was already an active forecaster on The Economist’s 2025 challenge; the University Forecasting Challenge was my way to test whether six months of deliberate practice had meaningfully improved my calibration.
Saicharan: What drew me to forecasting was the opportunity to think rigorously about uncertainty and real-world outcomes. I heard about the challenge through an email from GJO and decided to participate as a way to benchmark my thinking in a competitive setting.
Marcos: I was introduced to forecasting through Metaculus because of its collaboration with Bridgewater Associates in Spring 2025. I found that the forecasting process was akin to my debate research process, which I competed in for seven years. The variety of topic
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