AI Futures Project - Wikipedia
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Wikipedia article on the AI Futures Project, a nonprofit founded by ex-OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo focused on AI scenario forecasting, best known for the AI 2027 report examining near-term AGI risks and global consequences.
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Summary
The AI Futures Project is a Berkeley-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded by Daniel Kokotajlo after his resignation from OpenAI over safety concerns. It specializes in scenario forecasting for advanced AI development, most notably through its AI 2027 report, which depicts rapid AI capability growth and potential loss of human control. The report influenced policy discussions and was reportedly read by U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
Key Points
- •Founded by Daniel Kokotajlo, who resigned from OpenAI in April 2024 citing insufficient AI safety safeguards and prioritization of rapid product development.
- •AI 2027 report presents two scenarios: catastrophic loss of human control due to international AI competition, or coordinated global action averting disaster.
- •The report attracted attention from policymakers, including reportedly being read by U.S. VP JD Vance and influencing AI governance discussions.
- •Authors later revised some timelines, acknowledging a slower-than-forecasted path toward fully autonomous AI research systems.
- •Organization conducts tabletop exercises and workshops with participants from academia, technology, and public policy sectors.
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
AI progress forecasting nonprofit
AI Futures Project Formation October 2024 ; 1 year ago  ( 2024-10 ) Founders Daniel Kokotajlo Founded at Berkeley, California Type 501(c)(3) Registration no. EIN 99-4320292 Legal status Nonprofit research organization Focus Forecasting of artificial intelligence Location Berkeley, California , United States
Executive Director Daniel Kokotajlo COO Jonas Vollmer Key people Scott Alexander
Eli Lifland
Thomas Larsen
Romeo Dean
Website ai-futures .org Formerly called Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Inc
The AI Futures Project is a nonprofit research organization based in the United States that specializes in forecasting the development and societal impact of advanced artificial intelligence . The organization is best known for its 2025 scenario forecast, AI 2027 , which examines the potential near-term emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and its possible global consequences.
History
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The AI Futures Project was founded in 2025 by Daniel Kokotajlo , a former researcher in the governance division of OpenAI . [ 1 ] Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in April 2024, expressing concerns that the company prioritized rapid product development over AI safety and was advancing without sufficient safeguards. He founded the nonprofit to conduct independent forecasting and policy research. [ 2 ]
The organization is registered as a 501(c)(3) nonprofit in the United States and is funded through donations. It operates with a small research staff and network of advisors drawn from fields including AI policy , forecasting , and risk analysis . [ 3 ] [ non-primary source needed ]
Activities
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The mission of the AI Futures Project is to develop detailed scenario forecasts of the trajectory of advanced AI systems to inform policymakers, researchers, and the public.
In addition to written reports, the group has conducted tabletop exercises and workshops based on its scenarios, involving participants from academia, technology, and public policy. [ 4 ]
AI 2027
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In April 2025, the AI Futures Project released AI 2027 , a detailed scenario forecast describing possible developments in AI between 2025 and 2027. [ 5 ] The report was authored by Daniel Kokotajlo along with Eli Lifland, Thomas Larsen, and Romeo Dean, with editing assistance from blogger Scott Alexander . [ 6 ]
The scenario depicts very rapid progress in AI capabilities, including the development of autonomous AI systems capable of recursive self-improvement . AI 2027 presents two alternative endings: one in which international competition over advanced AI leads to catastrophic loss of human control , and another in which coordinated global action slows down development and averts imminent disaster. The authors emphasize that the narratives are hypothetical and intended as plan
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