OECD Risk of Automation

Summary

This OECD working paper analyzes the susceptibility of jobs to automation across OECD member countries, finding that approximately 9% of jobs are at high risk of automation—significantly lower than earlier estimates by Frey and Osborne. The study examines task composition within occupations at the individual worker level rather than occupational averages, revealing substantial variation across countries and demographic groups.

Key Points

• •Approximately 9% of jobs in OECD countries face high risk of automation, much lower than the 47% estimate from Frey & Osborne (2013) due to methodological differences.
• •Analysis focuses on task-level composition within occupations rather than treating all workers in an occupation as equally automatable.
• •Risk of automation varies significantly across countries, with lower-skilled, lower-wage, and younger workers facing disproportionately higher risk.
• •The study highlights that policy responses should focus on education, retraining, and social safety nets to address displacement among vulnerable groups.
• •Provides a comparative framework for understanding how technological change interacts with labor market structures across different national contexts.