CEPI - Disease X: Pandemic Preparedness for Unknown Pathogens

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4/5

High(4)

High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.

Rating inherited from publication venue: CEPI

Relevant to AI safety discussions around biological risk and pandemic preparedness; illustrates how AI tools are being applied to biosecurity and how institutional coordination addresses low-probability, high-impact global catastrophic risks.

Metadata

Importance: 35/100homepage

Summary

CEPI's Disease X initiative addresses preparedness for future pandemics caused by novel, unidentified pathogens. It outlines how AI tools, platform vaccine technologies, and broad viral family research strategies can accelerate response times to emerging infectious disease threats. COVID-19 served as the first real-world Disease X event, validating the importance of advance preparation.

Key Points

•Disease X refers to a serious epidemic/pandemic caused by an unknown pathogen; COVID-19 was the first real Disease X since the term was coined in 2018.
•CEPI uses AI to model viral mutations, rank pandemic-risk viral families, and design immunogens to speed vaccine development against novel threats.
•CEPI focuses on ~25 high-risk virus families as a strategic framework for preparedness rather than trying to predict specific pathogens.
•Platform vaccine technologies developed pre-COVID allowed CEPI to pivot quickly, with a vaccine rolling out within 326 days of COVID-19 emergence.
•CEPI and WHO advocate a broader research strategy covering entire pathogen families, not just individual known pathogens, to enhance future readiness.

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Page	Type	Quality
Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations	Organization	53.0

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![circle line graphic on blue background](https://static.cepi.net/images/3840x2160/2024-01/Disease-X-logo-on-card_1440x810.webp)

## What is Disease X?

Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious epidemic or pandemic could be caused by a novel or as-of-yet unidentified pathogen.

In February 2018, Disease X was included in the [WHO R&D Blueprint list](https://www.who.int/activities/prioritizing-diseases-for-research-and-development-in-emergency-contexts) of priority diseases. COVID-19 represented the first Disease X since the term was coined in 2018 and it resulted in a humanitarian and economic global crisis.

The [number](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsif.2014.0950) of new emerging infectious diseases is on the rise, and as the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated, infectious diseases do not respect borders so we need to be prepared on a global scale to respond to future outbreaks.

## Can we predict the next Disease X?

By its very nature, we cannot predict what Disease X will be or where it is likely to occur. However, we can narrow our focus.

We know that the viruses that put humanity at greatest risk come from 25 or so virus families. Armed with knowledge about these viral families, combining our global resources, and harnessing the latest advances in vaccine science, the world can better prepare for the next Disease X.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), for example, have made it possible to quickly and effectively model viral mutations and derive vaccine targets based on these predictions.

To accelerate the application of these AI tools for epidemic and pandemic preparedness, CEPI has established a number of partnerships to estimate the ability of a novel viral variant to [escape immunity](https://cepi.net/forecasting-viral-mutations/), [rank viral families](https://cepi.net/from-spillover-to-disease-x-new-ai-collaboration-aims-to-rank-viral-families-with-greatest-pandemic-threat/?swcfpc=1) according to epidemic or pandemic risk, and generate state-of-the-art [immunogen designs](https://cepi.net/using-ai-to-speed-up-vaccine-development-against-disease-x/?swcfpc=1) to speed up development of future vaccines against novel viral threats.

In [August 2024](https://cepi.net/cepi-and-who-urge-broader-research-strategy-countries-prepare-next-pandemic), CEPI and WHO emphasized the importance of expanding research to encompass entire families of pathogens that can infect humans as well as focusing on individual pathogens. Pushing forward a broader-based approach can help enhance the world's preparedness for a future Disease X.

[Read more about The Viral Most WantedArrow](https://cepi.net/viral-most-wanted)

![A 3D illustration of DNA double helix structure converted into binary code](https://static.cepi.net/images/1024x1024/2023-12/Artifical-intelegence-DNA-molecule_1440x810_blue-filter.webp)

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