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2023 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Changelog - GiveWell
webThis is a technical changelog from GiveWell, a charity evaluator focused on global health; it is not directly related to AI safety but may be relevant as a model for transparent, iterative quantitative evaluation practices.
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Importance: 18/100organizational reportreference
Summary
This page documents all changes made to GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models throughout 2023, covering updates across multiple versions. Changes include corrections to calculation errors, updated methodology for vaccination coverage, revised counterfactual values, and adjustments for specific country contexts such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Key Points
- •Documents versioned updates to GiveWell's CEA models in 2023, providing transparency into how estimates evolve over time.
- •Version 4 (August 2023) updated New Incentives CEA with Nigerian state data, revised death probability estimates, and cost-per-infant figures.
- •Version 3 (June 2023) corrected leverage and funging calculation errors in Sightsavers CEA and updated AMF CEA for DRC.
- •Updates reflect iterative refinement of key inputs like baseline vaccination coverage, net spacing, and counterfactual value of Global Fund spending.
- •Serves as an audit trail for GiveWell's quantitative charity evaluation methodology, supporting reproducibility and accountability.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| EA and Longtermist Wins and Losses | -- | 53.0 |
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# 2023 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Changelog
This page provides details about changes that were made to our cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in 2023. Each changelog entry represents our understanding at the time the change was made. For past versions of our CEA, see [this page](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models).
### Table of Contents
- [Version 4 — Published August 16, 2023](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Version_4_Published_August_16_2023) - [Change 1: Added remaining Nigerian states and updated probability of death estimates in our New Incentives CEA](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_1_Added_remaining_Nigerian_states_and_updated_probability_of_death_estimates_in_our_New_Incentives_CEA)
- [Change 2: Moved the "net spacing adjustment" to the "Number of people covered" section in the Against Malaria Foundation CEA](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_2_Moved_the_net_spacing_adjustment_to_the_Number_of_people_covered_section_in_the_Against_Malaria_Foundation_CEA)
- [Change 3: Updated the counterfactual value of Global Fund spending](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_3_Updated_the_counterfactual_value_of_Global_Fund_spending)
- [Change 4: Updated our methodology for calculating baseline vaccination coverage and treatment effect in the New Incentives CEA](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_4_Updated_our_methodology_for_calculating_baseline_vaccination_coverage_and_treatment_effect_in_the_New_Incentives_CEA)
- [Change 5: Updated the cost per infant estimate in our New Incentives CEA](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_5_Updated_the_cost_per_infant_estimate_in_our_New_Incentives_CEA)
- [Version 3 — Published June 13, 2023](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Version_3_Published_June_13_2023) - [Change 1: Corrected errors in the leverage and funging calculations in our Sightsavers CEA](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2023#Change_1_Corrected_errors_in_the_leverage_and_funging_calculations_in_our_Sightsavers_CEA)
- [Change 2: Updated the supplemental adjustment for medical costs averted by life-saving interventions](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/chang
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