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Published December 2024 by Harvard's Ash Center; useful empirical grounding for discussions about near-term AI misuse risks and the gap between predicted and actual harms in democratic contexts.

Metadata

Importance: 42/100news articlecommentary

Summary

A Harvard Ash Center analysis by Bruce Schneier and Nathan Sanders reviewing AI's actual role in 2024's historic global election cycle, finding that feared deepfake and misinformation catastrophes did not materialize while beneficial uses like language translation and voter outreach emerged. The piece provides a balanced post-mortem on AI's electoral impact across 72 countries.

Key Points

•2024 was the largest election year in history with 3.7 billion eligible voters across 72 countries, making it the first true 'AI election' cycle.
•Fears of AI-driven misinformation and deepfakes causing democratic collapse largely did not materialize as predicted.
•AI found constructive uses in campaigns, notably language translation for voter outreach, though these uses often happened secretly inside campaigns.
•Public perception was strongly negative: 8x more Americans expected AI to be used for bad vs. good electoral purposes per Pew Research.
•The piece cautions that while 2024 was manageable, the risks of AI in elections remain real and require responsible governance going forward.

Cited by 2 pages

Page	Type	Quality
Persuasion and Social Manipulation	Capability	63.0
AI-Era Epistemic Security	Approach	63.0

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Commentary   Dec 4, 2024

# The apocalypse that wasn’t: AI was everywhere in 2024’s elections, but deepfakes and misinformation were only part of the picture

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s instructive to take stock of how democracy did.

By:

- [Bruce Schneier](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/bruce-schneier)
- Nathan Sanders

* * *

#### Issues

[Democracy and AI](https://ash.harvard.edu/issues/democracy-and-ai/)

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AI played many roles in 2024’s elections. AP Photo/Paul Vernon

It’s been the [biggest year](https://theconversation.com/the-apocalypse-that-wasnt-ai-was-everywhere-in-2024s-elections-but-deepfakes-and-misinformation-were-only-part-of-the-picture-244225#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20been%20the-,biggest%20year,-for%20elections%20in) for elections in human history: 2024 is a “ [super-cycle](https://theconversation.com/the-apocalypse-that-wasnt-ai-was-everywhere-in-2024s-elections-but-deepfakes-and-misinformation-were-only-part-of-the-picture-244225#:~:text=2024%20is%20a%20%E2%80%9C-,super%2Dcycle,-%E2%80%9D%20year%20in%20which)” year in which 3.7 billion eligible voters in 72 countries had the chance to go the polls. These are also the [first AI elections](https://theconversation.com/the-apocalypse-that-wasnt-ai-was-everywhere-in-2024s-elections-but-deepfakes-and-misinformation-were-only-part-of-the-picture-244225#:~:text=are%20also%20the-,first%20AI%20elections,-%2C%20where%20many%20feared), where many feared that deepfakes and artificial intelligence-generated misinformation would overwhelm the democratic processes. As 2024 draws to a close, it’s instructive to take stock of how democracy did.

In a Pew survey of Americans from earlier t

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