When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
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Survey-based empirical study capturing expert predictions on AI capability timelines across tasks and occupations, providing quantitative data on expert beliefs about AI progress relevant to long-term AI safety planning and forecasting.
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This paper presents results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on the timeline for AI to exceed human performance across various tasks and occupations. Based on responses from 352 researchers at top ML conferences (NIPS and ICML 2015), the study finds that experts predict AI will outperform humans in specific tasks within 10 years (e.g., language translation by 2024, truck driving by 2027) and have a 50% probability of automating all human jobs within 120 years. The research reveals significant geographic variation, with Asian respondents expecting these milestones substantially sooner than North American researchers, highlighting the importance of expert forecasting for policy preparation.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Timelines | Concept | 95.0 |
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# When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
Katja Grace
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
AI Impacts
John Salvatier
AI Impacts
Allan Dafoe
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
Department of Political Science, Yale University
Baobao Zhang
Department of Political Science, Yale University
Owain Evans
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
###### Abstract
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military \[ [1](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib1 ""), [2](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib2 ""), [3](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib3 "")\]. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances \[ [4](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib4 ""), [5](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib5 "")\]. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.
### Introduction
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will have massive social consequences. Self-driving technology might replace millions of driving jobs over the coming decade. In addition to possible unemployment, the transition will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting vehicle cyber-security, and adapting laws and regulations \[ [5](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib5 "")\]. New challenges, both for AI developers and policy-makers, will also arise from applications in law enforcement, military technology, and marketing \[ [6](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib6 "")\]. To prepare for these challenges, accurate forecasting of transformative AI would be invaluable.
Several sources provide objective evidence about future AI advances: trends in computing hardware \[ [7](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib7 "")\], task performance \[ [8](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib8 "")\], and the automation of labor \[ [9](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib9 "")\]. The predictions of AI experts provide crucial additional information \[ [10](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib10 ""), [11](https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/1705.08807#bib.bib11 ""
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