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Good Judgment's 2025 In Review
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Relevant to AI safety researchers evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities and the comparative reliability of human vs. AI judgment for high-stakes, uncertain real-world questions including geopolitical and policy domains.
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Importance: 42/100blog postanalysis
Summary
Good Judgment Inc.'s 2025 review reports that human Superforecasters continue to outperform both prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) and large language models in forecasting accuracy. Key findings include a 40% performance gap between the best LLMs and top human forecasters per the Forecasting Research Institute, and a third consecutive year of beating CME's FedWatch tool on Federal Reserve forecasts.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters outperformed prediction markets including Polymarket on Fed rate decisions for the third consecutive year, as featured in the Financial Times.
- •The best-performing LLMs still lag top human forecasters by 40% according to Forecasting Research Institute's head-to-head competition.
- •AI excels at synthesizing existing information but struggles with volatile, contingent questions involving human behavior and geopolitical events where answers aren't in databases.
- •Good Judgment launched 1,140 forecasting questions in 2025 with a zero void rate, claiming a benchmark no other forecasting platform matches.
- •The organization expanded into executive education and leadership development programs, signaling growing institutional demand for structured probabilistic forecasting.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Good Judgment’s 2025 in Review
Good Judgment News and Insights
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AI, Markets, and the Future of Forecasting
Good Judgment Jan 15, 2026 7 2 Share It’s been a challenging year. Public imagination has been captured by prediction markets and AI alike as potential oracles for, well, everything. And yet, here we are at Good Judgment Inc, not just standing but setting records.
This year, Good Judgment launched an unprecedented 1,140 forecasting questions across our public and private platforms, with a void rate of exactly zero. That’s a benchmark other forecasting platforms cannot claim.
Our top-line developments in 2025:
Our Superforecasters have continued to outperform the markets, as featured in the Financial Times , and provide precise probabilities in our 11th annual collaboration with The Economist .
Good Judgment won an Honourable Mention in the 2025 IF Awards from the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) together with our UK partners ForgeFront for our joint Future.Ctrl methodology . This is a much-coveted professional award in the foresight industry.
Good Judgment’s CEO Dr. Warren Hatch delivered a keynote address at UN OCHA’s Global Humanitarian Policy Forum . We find it especially heartwarming that global leaders at the top level are paying attention to Superforecasting as a way to improve decision-making.
We have added an executive education program to our Superforecasting Workshops menu. It’s designed for decision-makers who want to incorporate probability forecasts into their process. So far, our client list includes a major technology company, an oil multinational, and investment funds, among others.
We now offer in-person workshops as part of a leadership development program with our Canadian partner, Kingbridge Centre .
But beyond the big names and numbers, we’ve learned something important about where human forecasting fits in an increasingly automated world.
The Two-Front Challenge
On one side, prediction markets like Polymarket have drawn enormous attention. On the other, large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability to synthesize information and generate plausible-sounding forecasts. So are Superforecasters still the best in the field? Are we still needed?
Our answer, backed by data, is yes.
Outperforming the Markets
For the third year in a row, our US Federal Reserve forecasts beat the CME’s FedWatch tool, a result we’ve been documenting throughout the year and that was featured in the Financial Times . Three years is a pattern.
What about Polymarket? On questions like Fed rate decisions, we f
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