Good Judgment Inc. – Superforecasting & Probabilistic Prediction Research

Summary

Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial spinoff of Philip Tetlock's landmark forecasting research, which demonstrated that a select group of 'superforecasters' can consistently outperform intelligence analysts and expert predictions using rigorous probabilistic thinking. The platform aggregates expert forecasts on geopolitical, technological, and scientific questions. It is highly relevant to AI safety for evaluating AI capabilities timelines and risk assessments.

Key Points

• •Superforecasters consistently outperform traditional expert forecasters by using calibrated probabilistic reasoning, frequent belief updates, and structured decomposition of problems.
• •The research, originating from IARPA's ACE tournament, showed that aggregating diverse informed perspectives can beat siloed expert consensus.
• •Good Judgment offers forecasting tools and crowd-sourced prediction markets applicable to AI development timelines and governance questions.
• •Probabilistic forecasting methodology is directly applicable to AI risk assessments, helping quantify uncertainty around transformative AI events.
• •The platform's techniques inform how AI safety researchers and policymakers can make more calibrated predictions about emerging AI capabilities and risks.