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GovAI research paper on the Baruch Plan
governmentCredibility Rating
4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Centre for the Governance of AI
A historically grounded GovAI paper drawing direct parallels between nuclear governance failures and current AI governance challenges; useful for understanding why international coordination on dangerous technologies is so difficult.
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Importance: 72/100working paperanalysis
Summary
This GovAI paper analyzes the Baruch Plan (1944-1951), the early attempt at international nuclear control, to extract lessons for governing powerful technologies like AI today. The authors find that existential threats can generate broad but fragile support for radical international control schemes, while secrecy, public manipulation, and political pragmatism undermine cooperation. Policymaking tended to resemble incremental 'muddling through' rather than coherent grand strategy.
Key Points
- •Radical international control schemes can gain broad support when facing existential technological threats, but this support is often tenuous and potentially cynical.
- •Secrecy played an important and likely harmful role in nuclear governance efforts, limiting informed public and expert deliberation.
- •Public opinion can be a meaningful force for cooperation but is also manipulable and poorly informed, creating governance risks.
- •Technical experts are critical to governance efforts but must also develop political savvy to be effective.
- •Cooperation on dangerous technologies faces substantial obstacles and may fail even when stakes are existentially high—a cautionary lesson for AI governance.
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International Control of Powerful Technology: Lessons from the Baruch Plan for Nuclear Weapons | GovAI
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The invention of atomic energy posed a novel global challenge: could the technology be controlled to avoid destructive uses and an existentially dangerous arms race while permitting the broad sharing of its benefits? From 1944 onwards, scientists, policymakers, and other technical specialists began to confront this challenge and explored policy options for dealing with the impact of nuclear technology. We focus on the years 1944 to 1951 and review this period for lessons for the governance of powerful technologies, and find the following: Radical schemes for international control can get broad support when confronted by existentially dangerous technologies, but this support can be tenuous and cynical. Secrecy is likely to play an important, and perhaps harmful, role. The public sphere may be an important source of influence, both in general and in particular in favor of cooperation, but also one that is manipulable and poorly informed. Technical experts may play a critical role, but need to be politically savvy. Overall, policymaking may look more like “muddling through” than clear-eyed grand strategy. Cooperation may be risky, and there may be many obstacles to success.
The Financial Times discussed this paper in an op-ed in international control.
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History Date
March 16, 2021
author
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Waqar Zaidi and Allan Dafoe
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