Kalshi AI Research Pause Market

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kalshi.com·kalshi.com/markets/kxaipause/ai-research-pause/kxaipause-27

A real-money prediction market providing crowd-sourced probability estimates on whether leading AI labs will voluntarily pause development for safety reasons; useful as a sentiment indicator but limited by subjective resolution criteria.

Metadata

Importance: 22/100otherreference

Summary

A Kalshi prediction market tracking the probability that xAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or OpenAI will pause AI research or development for safety reasons before January 1, 2027. The market resolves Yes if any such pause is verified by The New York Times. As of early 2025, the market shows low probability, with traders noting the question's subjectivity and dependence on media coverage.

Key Points

•Tracks whether any of xAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or OpenAI formally pauses AI research/development citing safety reasons before Jan 1, 2027
•Resolution depends on NYT verification, making it effectively a market on whether NYT will publish a specific type of article
•Traders note ambiguity since companies routinely delay model releases for safety without formal 'pauses'
•Market volume ~$27K, opened December 2024, closes early if event occurs or by Jan 1, 2027
•Reflects broader community sentiment on likelihood of voluntary safety-driven halts by frontier AI labs

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)	Organization	25.0

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![Series Image](https://d1lvyva3zy5u58.cloudfront.net/series-images-webp/KXAIPAUSE.webp?size=sm)

[Science and Technology](https://kalshi.com/category/science/all)

# Will any of the major AI companies pause research for safety reasons before 2027?

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$27,258 vol

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Order book

Order book

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## Rules summary

If any of xAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, OpenAI pause any AI research training or development for safety reasons before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/).

View full rules

Help center

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Timeline and payout

Market openDec 19, 2024 · 10:00am EST

Market closesAfter the outcome occurs

Projected payout30 minutes after closing

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2027 at 10:00am EST.

SeriesKXAIPAUSE

EventKXAIPAUSE-27

MarketKXAIPAUSE-27

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Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

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## Ideas

## Activity

This event

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Post

[![Post image](https://kalshi-social-public.s3.amazonaws.com/profile-pictures/quinz-2025-12-10%2018:44:55.webp)\\
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**quinz**\\
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Jan 12\\
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No Position\\
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#82 Predictions![](https://kalshi-social-public.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/badges/science%20and%20technology.svg)\\
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This question is so weird. Companies routinely pause development and delay the release of models over safety concerns.\\
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2\\
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1](https://kalshi.com/ideas/posts/8d3aa6c6-154c-4aa3-a907-2959668df261)

- ![](https://kalshi-social-public.s3.amazonaws.com/profile-pictures/quinz-2025-12-10%2018:44:55.webp)

















## quinz







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Resource ID: 6a0aeebfddd71e9e | Stable ID: MWY5OTU5Mz