Kalshi Science Category

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Useful as a real-time crowd-sourced probability source for AI capability and AGI timeline questions; financial incentives encourage calibration, but market liquidity and question design quality vary.

Metadata

Importance: 35/100homepagereference

Summary

Kalshi's Tech & Science prediction market category aggregates real-money crowd forecasts on AI capabilities, space exploration, nuclear energy, and emerging technologies. Markets include questions on AGI timelines, AI model rankings, SpaceX launches, nuclear reactor licensing, and psychedelic FDA approvals, with millions of dollars in trading volume reflecting collective probabilistic assessments.

Key Points

•Markets on OpenAI AGI timeline show ~45% probability before 2030 and ~31% before 2028, with $571K trading volume reflecting significant crowd interest.
•AI capability benchmarks tracked via scored thresholds (e.g., 1550+ score by July), providing quantified forecasts on near-term capability growth.
•Best AI coding model market assigns Anthropic 44% and OpenAI 32% probability for end-of-2026 leadership, useful for tracking capability competition.
•Nuclear energy markets cover both regulatory milestones (new reactor licenses) and startup criticality events, reflecting forecasts on advanced nuclear deployment.
•Alien confirmation and psychedelic FDA approval markets illustrate the breadth of science forecasting, though these are lower-stakes relative to AI/AGI questions.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)	Organization	25.0

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[All markets](https://kalshi.com/category/science) [AI](https://kalshi.com/category/science/ai) [Energy](https://kalshi.com/category/science/energy) [Space](https://kalshi.com/category/science/space)

# Tech & Science

Trending

Frequency

[**Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27)

Yes

3.80x24%

No

1.29x76%

$8,950,807 vol [1 market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27)

[**What will be the top AI model this month?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel/top-model/kxtopmodel-26feb28)

claude-opus-4-6

1.12x88%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

7.25x13%

$2,615,608 vol [14 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel/top-model/kxtopmodel-26feb28)

[**Best AI this month?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/yearend-top-llm/kxllm1-26feb28)

Claude

1.05x95%

Gemini

23.4x3%

$2,205,698 vol [7 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/yearend-top-llm/kxllm1-26feb28)

[**How many launches will SpaceX have in February 2026?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/spacex-launches/kxspacexcount-26feb)

Above 12

13.4x7%

Above 10

1.04x95%

$1,132,787 vol [7 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/spacex-launches/kxspacexcount-26feb)

[**SpaceX Starship 12th launch?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexstarship/spacex-starship-launch/kxspacexstarship-12)

Before April

3.08x38%

Before May

1.10x91%

$487,625 vol [4 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexstarship/spacex-starship-launch/kxspacexstarship-12)

[**US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreactor/us-grants-license-for-new-nuclear-reactor/kxreactor-26dec31)

Yes

3.52x27%

No

1.33x73%

$247,491 vol [1 market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxreactor/us-grants-license-for-new-nuclear-reactor/kxreactor-26dec31)

[**Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before August?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcriticality/nuclear-power-criticality/kxcriticality-26aug)

Atomic Alchemy

2.29x42%

Antares Nuclear

1.57x57%

$94,069 vol [10 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcriticality/nuclear-power-criticality/kxcriticality-26aug)

[**Tesla Optimus released this year?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxteslaoptimus/tesla-optimus-sale/teslaoptimus-26dec31)

Yes

5.25x19%

No

1.19x81%

$221,621 vol [1 market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxteslaoptimus/tesla-optimus-sale/teslaoptimus-26dec31)

[**Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel/best-ai-coding-model/kxcodingmodel-26dec)

Anthropic

2.14x44%

OpenAI

2.98x32%

$227,665 vol [9 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcodingmodel/best-ai-coding-model/kxcodingmodel-26dec)

[**AI capability growth before July?**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaispike/ai-capability-spike/kxaispike-26b)

At least 1550 score

1.86x52%

At least 1575 score

2.98x29%

$74,683 vol [9 markets](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaispike/ai-capability-spik

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Resource ID: 6cd183ce474a8cca | Stable ID: NDU1MDUxY2