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MIT Technology Review, *The State of AI: Is China About to Win the Race?
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4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: MIT Technology Review
Relevant to AI safety discussions about how US-China competition may create race dynamics that pressure both sides to deprioritize safety in favor of speed; published November 2025 by MIT Technology Review.
Metadata
Importance: 52/100news articlenews
Summary
MIT Technology Review examines the competitive landscape between the US and China in AI development, assessing China's rapid progress and whether it is positioned to surpass the United States in AI capabilities and deployment. The piece analyzes key metrics, policy environments, and technological milestones that define the race.
Key Points
- •China has made significant strides in AI capabilities, narrowing or potentially closing the gap with US frontier models.
- •The piece examines how export controls on chips and US policy have shaped China's AI development trajectory.
- •Chinese AI labs and state-backed initiatives are producing competitive large language models and applications at scale.
- •The framing of AI as a geopolitical race has major implications for safety, governance, and international coordination.
- •The article raises questions about whether the competitive dynamic undermines responsible AI development practices.
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**The State of AI is a collaboration between the Financial Times & MIT Technology Review examining the ways in which AI is reshaping global power. Every Monday for the next six weeks, writers from both publications will debate one aspect of the generative AI revolution reshaping global power.** You can read the [rest of the series here](https://www.technologyreview.com/tag/the-state-of-ai/).
_In this conversation, the FT’s tech columnist and Innovation Editor John Thornhill and MIT Technology Review’s Caiwei Chen consider the battle between Silicon Valley and Beijing for technological supremacy._
[](https://www.technologyreview.com/tag/the-state-of-ai/)
**John Thornhill writes:**
Viewed from abroad, it seems only a matter of time before China emerges as the AI superpower of the 21st century.
Here in the West, our initial instinct is to focus on America’s significant lead in semiconductor expertise, its cutting-edge AI research, and its vast investments in data centers. The legendary investor Warren Buffett once warned: “Never bet against America.” He is right that for more than two centuries, no other “incubator for unleashing human potential” has matched the US.
Today, however, China has the means, motive, and opportunity to commit the equivalent of technological murder. When it comes to mobilizing the whole-of-society resources needed to develop and deploy AI to maximum effect, it may be just as rash to bet against.
The data highlights the trends. In AI publications and patents, China leads. By 2023, China accounted for 22.6% of all citations, compared with 20.9% from Europe and 13% from the US, according to Stanford University's [Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025](https://hai.stanford.edu/assets/files/hai_ai_index_report_2025.pdf). As of 2023, China also accounted for 69.7% of all AI patents. True, the US maintains a strong lead in the top 100 most cited publications (50 versus 34 in 2023), but its share has been steadily declining.
Similarly, the US outdoes China in top AI research talent, but the gap is narrowing. According to a report from the [US Council of Economic Advisers](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/cea/written-materials/2025/01/14/ai-talent-report/), 59% of the world’s top AI researchers worked in the US in 2019, compared with 11% in China. But by 2022 those figures were 42% and 28%.
FT State of AI Ep1
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China
United States
EU
23-Nov23-Dec24-Jan24-Feb24-Mar24-Apr24-May24-Jun24-Jul24-Aug24-Sep24-Oct24-Nov24-Dec25-Jan25-Feb25-Mar25-Apr25-May25-Jun25-Jul25-Aug25-Sep010080604020
The Trump administration’s tightening of restrictions for foreign H-1B visa holders may well lead more Chinese AI researchers in the US to return home. The talent ratio could move further in China’s favor
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