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Empirical study analyzing how AI and ICT advancement affects democratization, arguing that technology complementarity with state administrative data enables authoritarian control—relevant to understanding AI's governance implications and risks to democratic institutions.
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This paper examines how AI and ICT advancement has hindered democratization over the past decade. The authors argue that the key factor determining whether AI/ICT benefits rulers or civil society is 'technology complementarity'—governments have greater access to administrative big data, making these technologies more complementary to state control. Through empirical testing and theoretical analysis, the paper demonstrates that AI/ICT advancement enables authoritarian and fragile democratic rulers to better control civil society, leading to democratic erosion. The findings explain recent concerning democratic backsliding in fragile-democracy countries.
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Why does AI hinder democratization? - PMC
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A . 2025 May 2;122(19):e2423266122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2423266122
Why does AI hinder democratization?
C Y Cyrus Chu
C Y Cyrus Chu
a Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei
115024, Taiwan
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a, 1 , Juin-Jen Chang
Juin-Jen Chang
a Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei
115024, Taiwan
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a , Chang-Ching Lin
Chang-Ching Lin
b Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan
701410, Taiwan
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b
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a Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei
115024, Taiwan
b Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan
701410, Taiwan
1 To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: cychu-4@econ.sinica.edu.tw .
Edited by Jose Scheinkman, Columbia University, New York, NY; received December 4, 2024; accepted March 1, 2025
Issue date 2025 May 13.
Copyright © 2025 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) .
PMC Copyright notice
PMCID: PMC12088401 PMID: 40314966
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between democratization and the development of AI and information and communication technology (ICT). Our empirical evidence shows that in the past 10 y, the advancement of AI/ICT has hindered the development of democracy in many countries around the world. Given that both the state rulers and civil society groups can use AI/ICT, the key that determines which side would benefit more from the advancement of these
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