Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Future

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Kalshi is occasionally referenced in AI safety and forecasting communities as an example of regulated prediction markets that could be used to aggregate expert beliefs about AI timelines, policy outcomes, or risk probabilities.

Metadata

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Summary

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform in the United States that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. It represents a legal, regulated approach to prediction markets, which are relevant to AI governance and forecasting discussions. Users can buy and sell contracts tied to economic, political, and other event outcomes.

Key Points

•First federally regulated prediction market exchange in the US, operating under CFTC oversight
•Allows trading on real-world event outcomes, enabling price-based probability discovery
•Relevant to AI governance discussions as a mechanism for aggregating distributed forecasts
•Prediction markets are discussed in AI safety contexts as tools for forecasting AI timelines and risks
•Represents a legal alternative to offshore prediction markets like Polymarket for US participants

Cited by 2 pages

Page	Type	Quality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)	Organization	25.0
Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting)	Approach	56.0

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[Ideas](https://kalshi.com/ideas/feed)

[**High Point at Wisconsin**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19hpwis)

LIVE· 2ND - 11:25

Wisconsin

56

1.42x

69%

High Point

55

2.98x

32%

$6,762,596 vol [Spread and Total](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19hpwis)

* * *

News· Wisconsin enters its first-round matchup with lingering concerns around a key injury, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. High Point brings a high-scoring offense and long winning streak into a historically volatile 5-12 matchup, where upsets have been common.

[* * *\\
\\
Wisconsin\\
\\
69%\\
\\
High Point\\
\\
32%\\
\\
1:50pm2:11pm2:33pm2:54pm3:15pm0%25%50%75%100%»»\+ $29](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19hpwis)

[**South Florida at Louisville**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19usflou)

LIVE· 2ND - 9:24

Louisville

66

--

99%

South Florida

44

93.5x

1%

$8,168,536 vol [Spread and Total](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19usflou)

* * *

News· Louisville faces South Florida to begin Thursday's first-round action in the national tournament, USA TODAY reports. The matchup highlights the balance of mid-seed games, where outcomes can be less predictable and tightly contested.

[* * *\\
\\
Louisville\\
\\
99%\\
\\
South Florida\\
\\
1%\\
\\
1:30pm1:56pm2:22pm2:49pm3:15pm0%25%50%75%100%»»](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19usflou)

[**Siena at Duke**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19sieduke)

LIVE· 1ST - 12:53

Duke

12

1.01x

99%

Siena

14

31.2x

3%

$8,714,952 vol [Spread and Total](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19sieduke)

* * *

News· Durham enters the tournament as a heavy favorite against Siena in a first-round matchup set for Thursday afternoon, CBS Sports reports. The game highlights the typical gap between top and bottom seeds, where early-round blowouts are common but surprises still linger in the background.

[* * *\\
\\
Duke\\
\\
99%\\
\\
Siena\\
\\
3%\\
\\
2:15pm2:30pm2:45pm3:00pm3:15pm0%25%50%75%100%»»\+ $29\+ $25](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19sieduke)

[**McNeese at Vanderbilt**](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-college-basketball-mens-game/kxncaambgame-26mar19mcnsvan)

MarketPays outOdds

Vanderbilt

1.14x87%

![McNeese](https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/structured_targets/NCAAB_MCNS.webp)

McNeese

6.29x15%

$1,452,462 vol [Spread and Total](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaambgame/mens-colleg

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Resource ID: 8d054aa535ed84ad | Stable ID: YmYwMjUzMD