Graham Allison's analysis

Summary

Graham Allison applies the 'Thucydides's Trap' framework to US-China relations, arguing that when a rising power threatens an established hegemon, war is a likely outcome. Drawing on historical case studies, he examines whether the US and China can avoid great-power conflict through strategic statecraft. The analysis has significant implications for understanding geopolitical risks surrounding AI competition and technology governance.

Key Points

• •The 'Thucydides's Trap' concept: in 12 of 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a ruling one, the result was war.
• •US-China rivalry over technology, trade, and military power mirrors historical patterns of hegemonic transition with high conflict risk.
• •Allison argues war is not inevitable but requires deliberate, historically-informed diplomacy to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
• •The framework is widely cited in AI governance discussions about US-China technology competition and the risks of adversarial AI races.
• •Structural pressures—not just intentions—drive conflict, making international coordination on emerging technologies especially difficult.