Sentinel

Research Focus Areas

 World-class foresight, Real-world impact

 
 
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 Geopolitics

 
 
 Artificial
Intelligence

 
 
 Economics

 
 
 Bio Risks

 
 
 Technology

 
 
 Climate &
Nature

 
 
 
 
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 World-class forecasting, judged publicly

 Here you can see the brier score of our predictions.

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 Price the Unpriceable

 World-Class Judgment for the Hardest-to-Price Risks

 
 
 When traditional models fall short, elite forecasting judgment becomes your edge. Sentinel delivers structured intelligence on the geopolitical, regulatory, and tail risks that move markets but resist conventional analysis.

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 What you get

 Custom Assessments

 Weekly probability updates on the exact questions that matter to your positions.

 
 
 

 
 
 
 What you get

 Driver Analysis

 Transparent reasoning behind each forecast, identifying the critical factors at play.

 
 
 

 
 
 
 What you get

 Sensitivity Indicators

 Advance warning of the signals and events that could trigger significant forecast updates.

 
 
 

 
 
 
 What you get

 Built for Your Workflow

 Integrate forecasts directly into your systems or access via dashboard and reports.

 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Insights Straight to Your Inbox

 Weekly Briefings

 
 
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 Briefing

 Global Risks Watch

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 Briefing

 Global Risks Watch

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 Briefing

 Global Risks Watch

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 Leadership

 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Nuño Sempere

 Cofounder & Head of Foresight

 Cofounder of Samotsvety , a forecasting team that won prestigious forecasting competitions and called the invasion of Ukraine two weeks early and has worked closely with major AI labs on catastrophe preparedness.
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 Rai Sur

 Cofounder & CEO

 Technical entrepreneur with a background in AI infrastructure and building financial systems to secure millions of dollars against threat actors.
 
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 Foresight Team

 
 

 
 
 Vidur Kapur

 Strong generalist forecaster. Samotsvety member with a track record on AI, geopolitics, an

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