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What 2026 Looks Like
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Credibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Alignment Forum
Written in mid-2022, this post is a notable early example of near-term AI scenario planning on the Alignment Forum, offering a grounded narrative counterpart to more abstract takeoff and timeline discussions; useful for understanding how forecasters conceptualized AI trajectories before GPT-4 and subsequent developments.
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Importance: 58/100blog postanalysis
Summary
A speculative future history written in 2022 projecting AI development trajectories from 2022 to 2026, using a conditional narrative methodology where each year's scenario grounds the next. The post explores plausible near-term harms like AI-driven propaganda and societal disruption, alongside questions about AI consciousness and agency, arguing concrete vignettes usefully complement abstract timeline discussions.
Key Points
- •Uses a conditional methodology: each year's scenario is written first, then subsequent years are conditioned on it to maintain internal consistency.
- •Highlights near-term AI misuse risks including scaling LLMs for persuasion, propaganda, and disinformation campaigns.
- •Explores emerging societal problems from AI deployment even absent catastrophic safety failures, suggesting harms can accrue gradually.
- •Raises speculative questions about AI consciousness and agency as capabilities scale, framing them as live concerns within the timeline.
- •Argues concrete narrative vignettes complement abstract discussions of AI timelines and takeoff dynamics by making scenarios more legible.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Short AI Timeline Policy Implications | Analysis | 62.0 |
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[What 2026 looks like](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#)
20 min read
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[2022](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#2022)
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[2023](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#2023)
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[2024](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#2024)
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[That isn’t to say these AIs aren’t causing problems. Massive models are being fine-tuned to persuade/propagandize.](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#That_isn_t_to_say_these_AIs_aren_t_causing_problems__Massive_models_are_being_fine_tuned_to_persuade_propagandize__)
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[2025](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#2025)
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[2026](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#2026)
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[What about all that AI-powered propaganda mentioned earlier?](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#What_about_all_that_AI_powered_propaganda_mentioned_earlier__)
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[Now let’s talk about the development of chatbot class consciousness.](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#Now_let_s_talk_about_the_development_of_chatbot_class_consciousness_)
[AI Timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/5Eg2urmQjA4ZNcezy)
[AI Timelines](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai-timelines)[Forecasting & Prediction](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/forecasting-and-prediction)[Forecasts (Specific Predictions)](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/forecasts-specific-predictions)[AI Persuasion](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai-persuasion)[AI Takeoff](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai-takeoff)[Fuzzies](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/fuzzies)[AI](https://www.alignmentforum.org/w/ai) [Curated](https://www.alignmentforum.org/recommendations)
# 124
- [spotify-podcast-badge-wht-blk-165x40Created with Sketch.](https://open.spotify.com/show/7vqBzO0ejqiLiXyTECEeBY)
# [What 2026 lookslike](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like)
by [Daniel Kokotajlo](https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/daniel-kokotajlo?from=post_header)
6th Aug 2021
20 min read
[169](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#comments)
# 124
[Review by\\
\\
Daniel Kokotajlo](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like#a4y2hqLmsxQr4YBgf)
This was written for the [Vignettes Workshop](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts).[\[1\]](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like-daniel-s-median-future?commentId=wL7FSxbsJs5EEZZEj) The goal is to write out a **detailed**
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