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PMC Article on Good Judgment Project Data
paperPubMed Central(peer-reviewed)·pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10189590/
Credibility Rating
4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: PubMed Central
Relevant to AI safety researchers interested in using structured human forecasting and superforecaster methodologies to evaluate uncertain outcomes, including AI risk timelines and policy effectiveness.
Metadata
Importance: 42/100journal articleanalysis
Summary
This paper analyzes data from the Good Judgment Project to examine the reliability and accuracy of human forecasting, particularly from 'superforecasters' who consistently outperform others. It investigates the cognitive and methodological factors that contribute to superior probabilistic prediction, with implications for how structured human judgment can inform decision-making under uncertainty.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters from the Good Judgment Project demonstrate consistently superior accuracy in probabilistic forecasting compared to general forecasters and experts.
- •The study examines cognitive traits, updating behaviors, and aggregation methods that distinguish high-performing forecasters.
- •Findings suggest that structured forecasting methodologies can meaningfully improve prediction quality for complex real-world questions.
- •Results have implications for using human forecasting to evaluate AI risks, policy outcomes, and other hard-to-quantify uncertainties.
- •The paper contributes empirical evidence for the value of calibrated uncertainty estimation in high-stakes decision-making contexts.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Compromising improves forecasting - PMC
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R Soc Open Sci . 2023 May 17;10(5):221216. doi: 10.1098/rsos.221216
Compromising improves forecasting
Dardo N Ferreiro
Dardo N Ferreiro
1
Faculty of General Psychology and Education, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany
4
Division of Neurobiology, Faculty of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Planegg-Martinsried, Germany
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Find articles by Dardo N Ferreiro
1, 4, ✉ , Ophelia Deroy
Ophelia Deroy
2
Munich Center for Neuroscience, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany
3
Faculty of Philosophy and Philosophy and Science, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany
5
Institute of Philosophy, School of Advanced Study, University of London, London, UK
Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
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2, 3, 5 , Bahador Bahrami
Bahador Bahrami
1
Faculty of General Psychology and Education, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany
6
Centre for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
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1, 6
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1
Faculty of General Psychology and Education, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany
2
Munich Center for Neuroscience, Lud
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