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The Superforecasters Track Record - Good Judgment Inc.
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Relevant to AI safety for understanding how structured forecasting methods can be applied to anticipate AI-related risks and policy outcomes; Good Judgment's superforecasters are sometimes consulted on AI timelines and governance questions.
Metadata
Importance: 42/100organizational reportreference
Summary
Good Judgment Inc. documents the empirical track record of its superforecasters—elite forecasters identified through the Good Judgment Project—showing their consistent outperformance of intelligence analysts, prediction markets, and general public forecasters. The page highlights calibration, accuracy metrics, and real-world forecasting achievements as evidence of the value of structured probabilistic forecasting.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters outperform CIA analysts with access to classified information by roughly 30% on geopolitical forecasting questions.
- •Performance is measured using Brier scores, providing a rigorous quantitative basis for comparing forecasting accuracy.
- •The superforecaster methodology emphasizes calibration, active updating, and aggregation of diverse viewpoints.
- •Track record spans domains including geopolitics, economics, and public health, suggesting broad applicability.
- •Demonstrates that systematic training and selection can produce reliably superior probabilistic forecasters.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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[Resources](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/ "Go to Resources.") \> The Superforecasters’ Track Record
# How accurate are the Superforecasters?
Superforecasters represented the cream of the crop of the Good Judgment Project forecasters. And they’ve proven themselves time and time again since turning professional in 2015. Below, we present data about their track record in both absolute and relative terms.
## Superforecasters have beaten all head-to-head competitors
- [Geopolitical forecasters](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/the-first-championship-season/ "Geopolitical forecasters")
### [Geopolitical forecasters](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/the-first-championship-season/ "Geopolitical forecasters")
Superforecasters beat all competing research teams in the IARPA ACE tournament by 35-72%.
[Learn more »](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/the-first-championship-season/ "Learn more »")
- [US intelligence analysts](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/ "US intelligence analysts")
### [US intelligence analysts](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/ "US intelligence analysts")
Good Judgment was over 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information.
[Learn more »](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/superforecasters-vs-the-icpm/ "Learn more »")
- [ClearerThinking.org competition](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/forecasting-a-new-administrations-policies/ "ClearerThinking.org competition")
### [ClearerThinking.org competition](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/forecasting-a-new-administrations-policies/ "ClearerThinking.org competition")
Superforecasters outperformed both client experts & a crowd-wisdom group in forecasting the new administration's policies.
[Learn more »](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/forecasting-a-new-administrations-policies/ "Learn more »")
- [Hybrid human-machine systems](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/supers-vs-hybrid-systems/ "Hybrid human-machine systems")
### [Hybrid human-machine systems](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/supers-vs-hybrid-systems/ "Hybrid human-machine systems")
100 Superforecasters defeated hybrid systems combining machine learning with crowd forecasts from 1,000+ people.
[Learn more »](https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/supers-vs-hybrid-systems/ "Learn more »")
“Team Good Judgment, led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, beat the control
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