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Superforecasters Financial Times 2023 - Good Judgment Inc.
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Relevant to AI safety discourse as forecasting methodology and calibrated uncertainty estimation are important tools for anticipating AI development trajectories and informing governance decisions.
Metadata
Importance: 28/100press releasenews
Summary
Good Judgment Inc. presents forecasts made by their superforecasters in collaboration with the Financial Times for 2023. The resource showcases probabilistic predictions on major geopolitical, economic, and global events, demonstrating the application of structured forecasting methodologies to real-world questions.
Key Points
- •Superforecasters apply calibrated probabilistic thinking to major 2023 global events across politics, economics, and technology
- •Collaboration with Financial Times brings structured forecasting methodology to mainstream media audiences
- •Demonstrates Good Judgment Project's approach of aggregating expert forecasts to improve prediction accuracy
- •Provides a public benchmark for evaluating forecasting performance on real-world outcomes
- •Illustrates how forecasting tournaments and superforecasting can inform decision-making under uncertainty
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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[Good Judgment Inc](https://goodjudgment.com/category/good-judgment-inc/ "Go to the Good Judgment Inc category archives.") \> Superforecasters vs FT Readers: Results of an Informal Contest in the Financial Times
# Superforecasters vs FT Readers: Results of an Informal Contest in the _Financial Times_
[](https://on.ft.com/3NIisvQ)
In early 2023, the _Financial Times_ launched an informal contest that pitted the predictive prowess of the FT’s readership against that of Good Judgment’s Superforecasters. The contest involved forecasting key developments in the year ahead, ranging from geopolitical events to economic indicators to heat waves to sport. The results? Illuminating.
“To help illustrate what makes a superforecaster worthy of the name, the FT asked both readers and Good Judgment superforecasters to make predictions on ten questions early this year, spanning from GDP growth rates to viewership of the Fifa women’s world cup final,” Joanna S Kao and Eade Hemingway [explain in their article](https://www.ft.com/content/e56d9709-025a-4c29-8d44-f08c0b7a9d2d).
A total of 95 Superforecasters made forecasts on the questions, while the reader poll had about 8,500 respondents.
**The Results**
Nine of the ten questions have now been scored. On a scale where 0.5 equals guessing and 1 equals perfect prediction, Superforecasters scored an average of 0.91 over nine questions, significantly outperforming FT readers who scored 0.73.
In this informal contest, the Superforecasters continued to work on the questions throughout the year, while the reader poll closed early. Based on everyone’s _initial_ forecasts as of 2 February 2023, however, the Superforecasters outperformed the general crowd on _eight out of nine_ questions.
**Key to Forecasting Success**
Key to the Superforecasters’ success, as the article notes, is their methodology. They focus on gathering comprehensive information, minimizing biases, and reducing the influence of irrelevant factors that only create noise. This methodological rigor stems from the foundational work of Philip Tetlock, a pioneer in the study of expert predictions and co-founder of Good Judgment Inc.
Read the [full article in the FT](https://www.ft.com/content/e56d9709-025a-4c29-8d44-f08c0b7a9d2d) for a fascinating glimpse into the realm of Superforecasting.
To benefit from Superforecasters’ insights on dozens of top-of-mind questions with probabilities that are updated daily, learn more about our forecast monitoring service, [FutureFirst](https://goodjudgment.com/services/futurefirst/).
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