AI Impacts 2023 survey

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AI Impacts·wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-leve...

Credibility Rating

3/5

Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: AI Impacts

This is one of the most cited empirical benchmarks for AI researcher beliefs on timelines and risk; useful for grounding arguments about how seriously the field takes near-term versus long-term AI concerns.

Metadata

Importance: 82/100wiki pagedataset

Summary

A large-scale survey of AI researchers conducted by AI Impacts in 2023, gathering expert predictions on AI timelines, transformative AI milestones, and related risks. The survey updates and expands on prior AI Impacts surveys, providing empirical data on researcher beliefs about when high-level machine intelligence will be achieved and associated concerns.

Key Points

•Surveyed thousands of AI researchers published at top venues (NeurIPS, ICML) about timelines to human-level AI and transformative milestones.
•Found median estimates for high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) have shifted significantly earlier compared to the 2016 survey.
•A substantial fraction of respondents expressed concern about catastrophic or existential risks from advanced AI systems.
•Researchers showed notable disagreement on timelines, with wide variance in probability estimates across individuals.
•Results inform debates about AI safety urgency, resource allocation, and the credibility of near-term vs. long-term risk framings.

Cited by 4 pages

Page	Type	Quality
AI Accident Risk Cruxes	Crux	67.0
The Case For AI Existential Risk	Argument	66.0
Is AI Existential Risk Real?	Crux	12.0
Should We Pause AI Development?	Crux	47.0

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### **−** Table of Contents

- [2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai)

  - [Details](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#details)

    - [Background](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#background)

    - [Survey methods](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#survey_methods)

      - [Questions](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#questions)

      - [Participants](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#participants)

      - [Changes from 2016 and 2022 ESPAI surveys](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#changes_from_2016_and_2022_espai_surveys)
    - [Definitions](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#definitions)

    - [Results](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai#results)


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