Back
RAND - Strategic competition in the age of AI
webCredibility Rating
4/5
High(4)High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: RAND Corporation
This RAND report is a government-commissioned policy analysis relevant to AI safety researchers interested in how military AI adoption intersects with strategic stability, arms races, and international governance challenges.
Metadata
Importance: 58/100organizational reportanalysis
Summary
A RAND Corporation study commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence examining the strategic implications of military AI adoption, with a focus on identifying priority issues, key uncertainties, and risks arising from AI-driven technological competition between major powers. The report assesses how AI may reshape military capabilities, deterrence, and strategic stability.
Key Points
- •Identifies priority issues and uncertainties in AI-driven military competition between major powers, particularly US, China, and Russia.
- •Examines how military AI adoption could affect strategic stability, deterrence, and escalation risks.
- •Highlights the challenge of governing and verifying AI capabilities in adversarial geopolitical contexts.
- •Assesses both near-term operational applications and longer-term transformative potential of AI in defense.
- •Commissioned by UK MOD, reflecting growing government interest in understanding AI's strategic implications for national security.
Review
The RAND research represents a critical examination of how artificial intelligence might transform military strategy and geopolitical competition. By focusing on strategic-level impacts rather than tactical applications, the study addresses a significant gap in existing AI research, particularly in defense contexts. The methodology emphasizes the profound uncertainty surrounding AI's potential impacts, recommending an adaptive approach to understanding emerging risks and opportunities. The research highlights the importance of rapid, effective state responses to intensifying AI competition, suggesting that the manifestation of risks or opportunities will largely depend on how nations strategically position themselves and develop AI capabilities.
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 4, 20266 KB
Strategic competition in the age of AI: Emerging risks and opportunities from military use of artificial intelligence | RAND
Skip to page content
This technical report aims to provide an initial exploration of ways in which military use of AI might generate risks and opportunities at the strategic level – conscious that much of the research to date has focused on the tactical level or on non-military topics (e.g. AI safety). There is also a summary report which focuses on high-level findings for decision makers.
Strategic competition in the age of AI
Emerging risks and opportunities from military use of artificial intelligence
James Black , Mattias Eken , Jacob Parakilas , Stuart Dee , Conlan Ellis , Kiran Suman-Chauhan , Ryan J. Bain , Harper Fine , Maria Chiara Aquilino , Mélusine Lebret , et al.
Research Published Sep 6, 2024
Download PDF
Additional Downloads
Includes Summary Report
Share on LinkedIn
Share on X
Share on Facebook
Email
Artificial intelligence (AI) holds the potential to usher in transformative changes across all aspects of society, economy and policy, including in the realm of defence and security. The United Kingdom (UK) aspires to be a leading player in the rollout of AI for civil and commercial applications, and in the responsible development of defence AI. This necessitates a clear and nuanced understanding of the emerging risks and opportunities associated with the military use of AI, as well as how the UK can best work with others to mitigate or exploit these risks and opportunities.
In March 2024, the Defence AI & Autonomy Unit (DAU) of the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD), and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) jointly commissioned a short scoping study from RAND Europe. The goal was to provide an initial exploration of ways in which military use of AI might generate risks and opportunities at the strategic level – conscious that much of the research to date has focused on the tactical level or on non-military topics (e.g. AI safety). Follow-on work will then explore these issues in more detail to inform the UK strategy for international engagement on these issues.
This technical report aims to set a baseline of understanding of strategic risks and opportunities emerging from military use of AI. The summary report focuses on high-level findings for decision makers.
Key Findings
One of the most important findings of this study is deep uncertainty around AI impacts; an initial prioritisation is possible, but this should be iterated as evidence improves.
The RAND team identified priority issues demanding urgent action. Whether these manifest as risks or opportunities will depend on how quickly and ef
... (truncated, 6 KB total)Resource ID:
c0308d1d959c2e67 | Stable ID: NzZmODBiZj