How Can Good Generalist Judgment Be Differentiated From Forecasting - EA Forum

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2020·EA Forum·forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-c...

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Linch

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Relevant to AI safety governance discussions about how to evaluate judgment quality in researchers and decision-makers, particularly when designing hiring or advising processes that rely on forecasting proxies for broader competence.

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ForecastingRationality

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Summary

This EA Forum discussion examines the operational distinction between 'good judgment' and 'forecasting skill,' exploring whether forecasting is a subset or distinct capability. Respondents argue that good judgment encompasses broader competencies—direction-setting, agenda-setting, creative thinking, systems thinking—while forecasting covers only narrow probabilistic prediction. The thread highlights challenges in evaluating and selecting for holistic decision-making quality.

Key Points

•Forecasting skill (probabilistic prediction) is likely a narrow subset of broader good judgment, not equivalent to it.
•Good judgment includes direction-setting, agenda-setting, creative thinking, and systems thinking beyond mere prediction.
•Organizations like the Good Judgment Project conflate terms, making operational distinction difficult in practice.
•Decision-making under uncertainty requires judgment components that standard forecasting metrics cannot capture.
•Identifying and selecting for holistic judgment quality remains an open methodological challenge for organizations.

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Good Judgment (Forecasting)	Organization	50.0

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## [\[ Question \]](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/questions)

# [How can good generalist judgment be differentiated from skill atforecasting?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from)

by [Linch](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/linch?from=post_header)

Aug 21 20201 min read4 answers1

# 25

[Forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/forecasting)[Rationality](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/rationality) [Frontpage](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/about#Finding_content)

[How can good generalist judgment be differentiated from skill at forecasting?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#)

[My question is, what are the concrete, operationalized differences between skill at forecasting vs having good judgment?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#My_question_is__what_are_the_concrete__operationalized_differences_between_skill_at_forecasting_vs_having_good_judgment_)

[Answers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#answers)

[13\\
weeatquince🔸\\
\\
Maybe I've misunderstood but in my humble opinion, and limited experie](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#PpuWxvgTm37p543ue)

[11\\
rorty\\
\\
If you're good at forecasting it's reasonable to expect you'll be abov](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#8NMakyrxfopCcgjBq)

[8\\
Linch\\
\\
To answer my own question, here is my best guess for how "good ju...](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#AHS4XfKyBjiHPqxtp)

[4\\
Michael St Jules 🔸\\
\\
From the post you refer to:](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#5mLdXkYMsCJC8zyMi)

[1 comment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-from#comments)

In EA, there appears to be an interest in " [good judgment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xMRpu4nAeGeAXy9ns/good-judgement-and-its-components)," sometimes also called " [rationality](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xMRpu4nAeGeAXy9ns/good-judgement-and-its-components?commentId=2YcRhq6pM5ijX2SBm#comments)."

There is also interest in [forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/rationality).

**My question is, what are the concrete, operationalized differences between skill at forecasting vs having good judgment?**

I'm not asking this question facetiously. For example, the parent company/organization of [Superforecasting](https:/

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