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A Primer on Good Judgment Inc. and the Good Judgment Project
blogCredibility Rating
2/5
Mixed(2)Mixed quality. Some useful content but inconsistent editorial standards. Claims should be verified.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Substack
Relevant to AI safety researchers interested in forecasting methodologies and epistemic calibration tools; Good Judgment's Superforecasters are sometimes consulted on AI risk and policy timelines questions.
Metadata
Importance: 38/100blog posteducational
Summary
This primer explains the origins, structure, and mission of Good Judgment Inc. and its related entities, rooted in the IARPA forecasting tournament that identified 'Superforecasters'—individuals with exceptional probabilistic prediction accuracy. It clarifies distinctions between the research project, commercial services, and public platform, while addressing common misconceptions about how probabilistic forecasts differ from polls or opinions.
Key Points
- •Good Judgment Inc. emerged from a 2011-2015 IARPA-funded research tournament that identified 'Superforecasters'—people with statistically superior forecasting ability.
- •Three distinct entities exist: the Good Judgment Project (research), Good Judgment Inc. (commercial services), and Good Judgment Open (public forecasting platform).
- •Superforecaster outputs are well-calibrated probabilistic estimates, not polls—a 70% probability means a genuine belief the event will occur roughly 70% of the time under similar conditions.
- •The organization provides structured, evidence-based forecasting services relevant to policy, intelligence, and strategic decision-making.
- •Common misconceptions addressed include treating probabilistic forecasts as binary predictions or as simple opinion aggregations.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
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A Primer on Good Judgment Inc and Superforecasters
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Probabilistic forecasts, Superforecasters’ background, and more: Addressing some of the common questions we receive about our work.
Good Judgment Jul 16, 2024 4 Share At Good Judgment Inc ( GJI ), the official home of Superforecasting®, we pride ourselves on our ability to provide well-calibrated and insightful forecasts. As we continue to partner with clients and media worldwide, it is worthwhile to address some of the common questions we receive about our work. Here is a primer on our story, probabilistic forecasts, and our team of Superforecasters.
Where in the world are Superforecasters? Source: Good Judgment Inc What’s in a Name? GJP, GJI, and GJ Open
The Good Judgment Project (GJP)
In 2011, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) launched a massive tournament to identify the most effective methods for forecasting geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP), led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania, emerged as the clear winner of the tournament. The research project concluded in 2015, but its legacy lives on. The GJP is credited with the discovery of Superforecasters, people who are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training.
Good Judgment Inc (GJI)
GJI is the commercial successor to the GJP and the official home of Superforecasting® today. We leverage the lessons learned during the IARPA tournament and insights gained in our subsequent work with Phil Tetlock and his research colleagues as well as with leading companies, academic institutions, governments, and non-governmental organizations to provide the best and the latest in forecasting and training services. Our goal is to help organizations make better decisions by harnessing the power of accurate forecasts. GJI relies on a team of Superforecasters, as well as data and decision scientists, to provide forecasting and training to clients.
Good Judgment Open (GJ Open)
GJO, or GJ Open , is our public platform, open to anyone interested in making forecasts. Unlike GJI, which involves professional Superforecasters, GJO welcomes participation from the public. The “Open” in GJ Open not only signifies that it’s accessible to all but also draws a parallel to golf tournaments. Forecasting questions vary in their complexity, so there is no absolute score to indicate a “good”
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