The Limits of Chip Export Controls: Meeting the China Challenge

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Relevant to discussions of compute governance and AI race dynamics; CSIS is a prominent U.S. think tank, and this analysis informs ongoing debates about whether hardware export controls are a viable mechanism for managing AI risk from strategic competitors.

Metadata

Importance: 62/100organizational reportanalysis

Summary

This CSIS analysis examines the effectiveness and limitations of U.S. semiconductor export controls targeting China, assessing whether these restrictions can meaningfully constrain China's AI and military capabilities. It explores the strategic trade-offs between technology denial, economic costs to U.S. firms, and the risk of accelerating Chinese domestic chip development.

Key Points

•Export controls on advanced chips face inherent limitations due to smuggling, third-country transshipment, and difficulty defining controlled technologies.
•Overly broad controls may harm U.S. semiconductor competitiveness while providing only temporary delays to Chinese capability development.
•China is investing heavily in domestic chip manufacturing to reduce dependence on U.S. technology, potentially undermining long-term control effectiveness.
•Effective chip controls require multilateral coordination with allies like the Netherlands and Japan to prevent circumvention.
•Policy must balance denying militarily relevant capabilities against collateral damage to legitimate commercial and research activities.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
US AI Chip Export Controls	Policy	73.0

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# The Limits of Chip Export Controls in Meeting the China Challenge

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Commentary
by [Sujai Shivakumar](https://www.csis.org/people/sujai-shivakumar), [Charles Wessner](https://www.csis.org/people/charles-wessner), and
Thomas Howell

Published April 14, 2025

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# The Limits of Chip Export Controls in Meeting the China Challenge

An audio version of “The Limits of Chip Export Controls in Meeting the China Challenge,” a new commentary by CSIS's Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, and Thomas Howell. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

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