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AI Impacts: Surveys of AI Risk Experts
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: AI Impacts
A useful reference page for empirical data on what AI experts believe about risk and timelines; helpful for grounding discussions in surveyed expert opinion rather than anecdote.
Metadata
Importance: 62/100wiki pagereference
Summary
This AI Impacts wiki page compiles and summarizes surveys conducted among AI researchers and experts regarding their views on AI risk, timelines to transformative AI, and safety concerns. It serves as a reference for empirical data on expert opinion within the AI safety community, tracking how professional assessments of AI risk have evolved over time.
Key Points
- •Aggregates multiple surveys of AI researchers on topics including timelines to AGI, probability of catastrophic outcomes, and prioritization of safety research.
- •Provides a resource for tracking shifts in expert consensus on AI risk over time, useful for calibrating community-wide beliefs.
- •Surveys include responses from machine learning researchers and AI safety specialists, offering both mainstream and safety-focused perspectives.
- •Data can inform policy discussions and resource allocation decisions by grounding them in empirical expert opinion rather than speculation.
- •Part of AI Impacts' broader mission to provide rigorous, evidence-based information relevant to understanding AI's long-term trajectory.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Accident Risk Cruxes | Crux | 67.0 |
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# [AI Impacts Wiki](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/start "[H]")
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### **−** Table of Contents
- [Surveys of experts on levels of AI Risk](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#surveys_of_experts_on_levels_of_ai_risk)
- [Surveys of AI experts](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#surveys_of_ai_experts)
- [2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai)
- [Zhang et al 2019](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#zhang_et_al_2019)
- [2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai1)
- [Michael et al 2022](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#michael_et_al_2022)
- [Generation Lab 2023](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#generation_lab_2023)
- [Expert Survey on Progress in AI 2023](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai_2023)
- [Not currently included on this list](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#not_currently_included_on_this_list)
- [Surveys of AI safety/governance experts](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#surveys_of_ai_safetygovernance_experts)
- [Not currently included on this list](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#not_currently_included_on_this_list1)
- [Other](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/uncategorized/ai_risk_surveys#other)
# Surveys of experts on levels of AI Risk
_Published 9 May 2023; last updated 23 May 2023_
_This page is being updated, and may be low quality._
We know of six surveys of AI experts and two surveys of AI safety/governance experts on risks from advanced AI.
## Surveys of AI experts
### 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
_(Main article: [2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai "ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2016_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai"))_
Paper: [When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence fr
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e4357694019bb5f5 | Stable ID: OWMxZGI3Zm