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Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area? - EA Forum
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A podcast episode from the EA Forum exploring forecasting and prediction markets as a cause area; relevant to AI safety researchers interested in epistemic tools for navigating uncertainty around transformative AI and catastrophic risks.
Metadata
Importance: 38/100podcast episodecommentary
Summary
This resource is a podcast/discussion exploring whether forecasting and prediction markets constitute a high-impact cause area within Effective Altruism. It examines how improving epistemic tools and decision-making under uncertainty could benefit humanity, including applications to existential risk reduction and AI safety.
Key Points
- •Evaluates forecasting as a potential EA cause area using standard cause prioritization frameworks (scale, neglectedness, tractability).
- •Explores how better forecasting tools could improve decision-making in high-stakes domains including AI safety and global catastrophic risks.
- •Discusses prediction markets and forecasting tournaments as mechanisms to aggregate information and reduce uncertainty.
- •Considers whether forecasting infrastructure is sufficiently neglected and whether EA involvement could have outsized impact.
- •Addresses limitations and challenges of forecasting as an intervention, including political and institutional adoption barriers.
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# Podcast: Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area?
[Ozzie Gooen](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/users/oagr) Mar 25, 2024, 4:36 PM
29 points
**11 votes**
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[3 comments](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/fsnMDpLHr78XgfWE8/podcast-is-forecasting-a-promising-ea-cause-area#comments) 1 min read [EA link](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fsnMDpLHr78XgfWE8/podcast-is-forecasting-a-promising-ea-cause-area) [View Frontpage posts](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/ "View Frontpage posts")
[Cause prioritization](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/cause-prioritization) [Forecasting](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/forecasting) [Podcasts](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/podcasts) [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/quantified-uncertainty-research-institute) [Audio](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/audio) [Algorithmic Forecasting](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/tag/algorithmic-forecasting)
[Podcast Link](https://shows.acast.com/quri/episodes/eli-and-ozzie-is-forecasting-a-promising-ea-cause)
There was recently a [lengthy thread on the EA Forum](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/ziSEnEg4j8nFvhcni/new-open-philanthropy-grantmaking-program-forecasting#comment-7cDWRrv57kivL5sCQ) about the value of forecasting as a potential cause area, between Eli Lifland and myself (Ozzie Gooen). We thought it would be interesting to expand on this in a podcast episode.
**Some Summary Points**
- Open Phil’s expanded forecasting grant-making program has sparked debate about the value and impact of this area.
- The definition and boundaries of “forecasting” in EA are unclear, leading to differing opinions on its importance versus other priorities.
- AI could significantly change forecasting, and integrating AI into forecasting pipelines is a key consideration.
- Improving “epistemic infrastructure” is important, but the best approaches are uncertain, ranging from forecasting tournaments to broader efforts.
- More work is needed on judgmental forecasting of AI risk and other key questions, but the tractability and impact are debated.
- The prioritization of forecasting and the resources it deserves remain complex, unresolved questions requiring further research and experimentation.
**Some Mentioned Organizations and Projects**
- [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)—A foundation that aims to do as much good as possible with its giving, including grants for forecasting research and programs.
- [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/)—A community forecasting platform that hosts predictions on a wide range of topics, including AI and other EA-relevant areas.
- [CSET-Foretell](https://www.cset-foretell.com/)—A project by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) that uses forecasting to inform policy decisions related to emerging technologies.
- [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/)—A prediction market platform that allows use
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