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About Us - Swift Centre
webswiftcentre.org·swiftcentre.org/about-us-draft
Swift Centre is a forecasting organization relevant to AI governance discussions; their about page provides context on their methodology and mission, though content was unavailable for detailed analysis.
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Summary
Swift Centre is an organization focused on producing rigorous, calibrated forecasts and analysis on important topics, including emerging technologies and AI. The page describes their mission, methodology, and team. They aim to provide reliable probabilistic predictions to inform decision-making.
Key Points
- •Swift Centre specializes in superforecasting and calibrated probabilistic analysis on consequential issues
- •The organization applies structured forecasting methodologies to topics including AI development and emerging technologies
- •Their work aims to reduce uncertainty and improve decision-making for policymakers and researchers
- •They draw on a community of skilled forecasters trained in rigorous epistemic practices
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
| Swift Centre | Organization | 50.0 |
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## Mission
**_Our mission:_** _“We turn uncertainty into foresight, enabling confident, well-informed decisions.”_
**_Our vision:_** _“To be the trusted source of clarity in an uncertain world - helping decision-makers manage risks and seize opportunities before they happen.”_
## Methodology
Forecasting is rooted in decades of rigorous scientific research through structured tournaments, psychological studies, and statistical methodologies. One landmark project, the Good Judgment Project led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, demonstrated that certain individuals (“superforecasters”) consistently outperformed others through a combination of cognitive ability, probabilistic reasoning, open-minded thinking, and systematic training.
The Swift Centre was founded by former managing director and superforecaster at the Good Judgment Project, Michael Story, to leverage the application of forecasting research for real-world problems.
The Swift forecasting team is built from a global network of impartial and highly-calibrated individuals who work together to provide valuable insights and predictions that can inform strategic decision-making in a variety of industries and sectors.
## Meet the Team…
- ### Michael Story - Founder / Director
With a background as a Managing Director at Good Judgment Inc. and a qualifying “super-forecaster” in the original Good Judgment Project, Michael founded the Swift Centre to bridge forecasting research and real-world decision-making. Prior to the Swift Centre, Michael applied rigorous forecasting, psychometrics and risk-quantification techniques in hedge fund and consulting environments, with a persistent focus on calibration and performance under uncertainty.
He believes that effective forecasting is not just about assigning probabilities, but about delivering the **why** (the models, assumptions and mechanisms behind an outcome)so that decision-makers can act with clarity. His core conviction is that forecasts become most powerful when they inform **how** to respond, not just **what** might happen
- ### James Newport - Executive Director
James has a background in UK public policy and international finance, including roles at HM
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