High Risk, Low Reward: A Challenge to the Astronomical Value of Existential Risk Mitigation — David Thorstad, Philosophy and Public Affairs 51(4): 373–412 (Fall 2023)

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A peer-reviewed philosophical critique of longtermist expected-value arguments for prioritizing existential risk mitigation; relevant for anyone evaluating the theoretical foundations of the AI safety field's prioritization claims.

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Importance: 72/100journal articleprimary source

Summary

David Thorstad challenges the influential 'astronomical value' argument that existential risk mitigation deserves overwhelming priority due to the enormous potential future population. He argues that the expected value calculations underlying this claim are undermined by deep uncertainty and risk-aversion considerations, and that the case for prioritizing x-risk work over near-term interventions is weaker than commonly assumed.

Key Points

•Challenges the 'astronomical value' thesis (associated with Bostrom and Ord) that x-risk mitigation has near-infinite expected value due to vast potential future populations.
•Argues that under deep uncertainty and risk-aversion, the expected value of existential risk reduction is much lower than standard longtermist calculations suggest.
•Raises the 'high risk, low reward' problem: interventions with tiny probabilities of success and enormous claimed payoffs may not dominate near-term alternatives under reasonable decision theory.
•Published in Philosophy and Public Affairs, a leading peer-reviewed ethics journal, lending it significant academic credibility as a critique of longtermist prioritization.
•Contributes to a broader philosophical debate about whether longtermism and x-risk focus are justified by expected value reasoning or represent overconfident speculation.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Longtermism's Philosophical Credibility After FTX	--	50.0

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# [High Risk, Low Reward: A Challenge to the Astronomical Value of Existential Risk Mitigation](https://philpapers.org/go.pl?id=THOHRL&proxyId=&u=https%3A%2F%2Fphilpapers.org%2Farchive%2FTHOHRL.pdf)

[David Thorstad](https://philpapers.org/s/David%20Thorstad "View other works by David Thorstad")

_[Philosophy and Public Affairs](https://philpapers.org/asearch.pl?pub=819)_ 51 (4):373-412 (2023)

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# Abstract

Philosophy &Public Affairs, Volume 51, Issue 4, Page 373-412, Fall 2023.


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# Author's Profile

[![](https://philpeople.org/profiles/photo/140914/small)](https://philpeople.org/profiles/david-thorstad)

[David Thorstad](https://philpeople.org/profiles/david-thorstad)

Vanderbilt University


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# Categories

[Axiology](https://philpapers.org/browse/axiology) in [Value Theory, Miscellaneous](https://philpapers.org/browse/value-theory-miscellaneous)

[Effective Altruism](https://philpapers.org/browse/effective-altruism) in [Applied Ethics](https://philpapers.org/browse/applied-ethics)

[Existential Risk](https://philpapers.org/browse/existential-risk) in [Philosophy of Action](https://philpapers.org/browse/philosophy-of-action)

[Longtermism](https://philpapers.org/browse/longtermism) in [Applied Ethics](https://philpapers.org/browse/applied-ethics)

[Social and Political Philosophy](https://philpapers.org/browse/social-and-political-philosophy)

# Keywords

[longtermism](https://philpapers.org/s/longtermism) [existential risk](https://philpapers.org/s/existential%20risk)

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# DOI

10.1111/papa.12248

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