Kaplan & Garrick (1981)
paperAuthor
Credibility Rating
High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Wiley Online Library
Foundational paper establishing formal quantitative framework for risk analysis using probability triplets and Bayes' theorem, providing mathematical foundations for risk assessment methodologies applicable to AI safety risk quantification.
Paper Details
Metadata
Summary
Kaplan and Garrick (1981) propose a foundational quantitative definition of risk based on the concept of a 'set of triplets,' establishing a formal framework for risk analysis. The paper extends this definition to incorporate uncertainty and completeness, utilizing Bayes' theorem for probabilistic reasoning. The authors apply their framework to discuss key concepts including relative risk, the relativity of risk across contexts, and the acceptability of risk, providing a mathematical foundation for systematic risk assessment that has become influential in the risk analysis field.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Risk Portfolio Analysis | Analysis | 64.0 |
Cached Content Preview
[Risk Analysis](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15396924 "Risk Analysis homepage")
[Volume 1, Issue 1](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/15396924/1981/1/1) pp. 11-27 [](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15396924 "Risk Analysis homepage")
# On The Quantitative Definition of Risk
[Stanley Kaplan](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Kaplan/Stanley),
Stanley Kaplan
Kaplan & Associates, Inc., 17840 Skypark Blvd. Irvine, CA 92714.
[Search for more papers by this author](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Kaplan/Stanley)
[B. John Garrick](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Garrick/B.+John),
B. John Garrick
Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc.
[Search for more papers by this author](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Garrick/B.+John)
[Stanley Kaplan](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Kaplan/Stanley),
Stanley Kaplan
Kaplan & Associates, Inc., 17840 Skypark Blvd. Irvine, CA 92714.
[Search for more papers by this author](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Kaplan/Stanley)
[B. John Garrick](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Garrick/B.+John),
B. John Garrick
Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc.
[Search for more papers by this author](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Garrick/B.+John)
First published: March 1981
[https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.xDigital Object Identifier (DOI)](https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x)
view metrics
Kaplan, S. and Garrick, B.J. (1981), On The Quantitative Definition of Risk. Risk Analysis, 1: 11-27. [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x](https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x)
[PDF](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x "ePDF")
### Abstract
A quantitative definition of risk is suggested in terms of the idea of a “set of triplets”. The definition is extended to include uncertainty and completeness, and the use of Bayes' theorem is described in this connection. The definition is used to discuss the notions of “relative risk”, “relativity of risk”, and “acceptability of risk”.
## References
- 1W. D. Rowe, An Anatomy of Risk (John Wiley & Sons,
New York
, 1977).
[Google Scholar](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/getFTRLinkout?url=http%3A%2F%2Fscholar.google.com%2Fscholar_lookup%3Fhl%3Den%26publication_year%3D1977%26author%3DW.%2BD.%2BRowe%26title%3DAn%2BAnatomy%2Bof%2BRisk&doi=10.1111%2Fj.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x&linkType=gs&linkLocation=Reference&linkSource=FULL_TEXT)
- 2B. L. Cohen and
I-S. Lee, A Catalogue of Risks Conference Record, IEEE Standards Workshop on Human Factors and Nuclear Safety (1979).
[Google Scholar](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/getFTRLinkout?url=http%3A%2F%2
... (truncated, 18 KB total)f1043d283b6cf307 | Stable ID: MzA2Mjg0ZT