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Come to Manifest 2024! June 7-9 in Berkeley
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3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: EA Forum
A community event announcement with marginal direct AI safety content, but relevant as forecasting and prediction markets are sometimes used as tools for assessing AI risks and informing policy decisions.
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Building effective altruismForecastingAnnouncements and updatesConferencesPrediction markets
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Summary
Manifest 2024 is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets in Berkeley, featuring speakers like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, and Robin Hanson. The event brings together 500-700 attendees from forecasting, rationality, EA, and economics communities for talks, workshops, and networking. Topics include AI forecasting, prediction markets in journalism and government, and experimental mechanisms.
Key Points
- •Three-day festival (June 7-9, 2024) in Berkeley hosted by Manifold Markets, targeting 500-700 attendees from forecasting and adjacent communities.
- •Notable speakers include Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, and Robin Hanson, covering forecasting, rationality, and prediction markets.
- •Attendee-run workshops and side events address AI forecasting, prediction markets in journalism/government, and experimental mechanisms.
- •Event serves as a community-building hub for forecasting, rationality, effective altruism, and economics practitioners.
- •Relevant to AI safety insofar as forecasting and prediction markets are tools for reasoning about AI risk and coordination.
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| Page | Type | Quality |
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| Manifest (Forecasting Conference) | Organization | 50.0 |
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Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley) — EA Forum
This website requires javascript to properly function. Consider activating javascript to get access to all site functionality. Hide table of contents Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
by Saul Munn , Rachel Weinberg , Austin Mar 27 2024 4 min read 8 15
Building effective altruism Forecasting Announcements and updates Conferences Prediction markets Frontpage Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley) TLDR People Content Last year’s content Testimonials Festimonials Place Extra events LessOnline Summer Camp Tickets & contact 8 comments This is a linkpost for https://news.manifold.markets/p/come-to-manifest-2024-june-7-9-in TLDR
Manifold is hosting a festival for prediction markets: Manifest 2024 ! We’ll have serious talks, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events over the weekend. Chat with special guests like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, Dwarkesh Patel, Cate Hall, and more at this second in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community!
Tickets & more info: manifest.is
WHEN : June 7-9, 2024, with LessOnline and Summer Camp starting May 31
WHERE : Lighthaven , Berkeley, CA
WHO : Hundreds of folks, interested in forecasting, rationality, EA, economics, journalism, tech and more. If you’re reading this, you’re invited!
People
Manifest is an event for the forecasting & prediction market community, and everyone else who’s interested. We’re aiming for about 500-700 attendees (you can check the markets here !).
Current speakers & special guests include:
Content
Everything’s optional, and there’ll always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently. Like last year, we’ll host a mix of talks from experts, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events. We’re especially excited about attendee-run sessions — people loved hosting their own and attending their friends’. Topics range from:
forecasting in journalism & government
legalizing prediction markets
AI forecasting (& AIs making forecasts)
the case against forecasting/prediction markets
adjacent experimental stuff (impact certificates, quadratic voting, etc)
…and much, much more!
Since Manifest is forecasted to be bigger this year , we’re putting extra effort into making it easier for the right people to connect. We’ll have interest-specific meetups for politics, journalism, AI, mechanism design, etc — and plenty of infrastructure for you to run your own sessions on topics you’re excited about.
Last year’s content
To give you a sense of what to expect, here were some talks from last year:
Prediction Markets in Journalism — Scott Alexander (ACX) and Dylan Matthews (Vox)
Fireside Chat — Nate Silver (538)
Biggest Questions in AI Forecasting — Matthew Barnett (Epoch AI)
The Future of Trust and Evidence in the Age of AI — Emmett Shear (Twitch, YC, OpenAI)
Improving AI Benchmarks — Isabel Juniewicz (Open Philanthropy)
Revolution Strategies — Robin Han
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