Come to Manifest 2024! June 7-9 in Berkeley
blogCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: EA Forum
A community event announcement with marginal direct AI safety content, but relevant as forecasting and prediction markets are sometimes used as tools for assessing AI risks and informing policy decisions.
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15
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Building effective altruismForecastingAnnouncements and updatesConferencesPrediction markets
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Importance: 15/100blog postnews
Summary
Manifest 2024 is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets in Berkeley, featuring speakers like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, and Robin Hanson. The event brings together 500-700 attendees from forecasting, rationality, EA, and economics communities for talks, workshops, and networking. Topics include AI forecasting, prediction markets in journalism and government, and experimental mechanisms.
Key Points
- •Three-day festival (June 7-9, 2024) in Berkeley hosted by Manifold Markets, targeting 500-700 attendees from forecasting and adjacent communities.
- •Notable speakers include Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, and Robin Hanson, covering forecasting, rationality, and prediction markets.
- •Attendee-run workshops and side events address AI forecasting, prediction markets in journalism/government, and experimental mechanisms.
- •Event serves as a community-building hub for forecasting, rationality, effective altruism, and economics practitioners.
- •Relevant to AI safety insofar as forecasting and prediction markets are tools for reasoning about AI risk and coordination.
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Manifest (Forecasting Conference) | Organization | 50.0 |
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# Come to Manifest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)
By Saul Munn, Rachel Weinberg, Austin
Published: 2024-03-27
TLDR
====
[Manifold](https://manifold.markets) is hosting a festival for prediction markets: [**Manifest 2024**](http://manifest.is)! We’ll have serious talks, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events over the weekend. Chat with special guests like Nate Silver, Scott Alexander, Robin Hanson, Dwarkesh Patel, Cate Hall, and more at this second in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community!
**Tickets & more info:** [manifest.is](https://manifest.is)
**WHEN**: June 7-9, 2024, with [LessOnline](https://less.online/) and Summer Camp starting May 31
**WHERE**: [Lighthaven](http://lighthaven.space), Berkeley, CA
**WHO**: Hundreds of folks, interested in forecasting, rationality, EA, economics, journalism, tech and more. If you’re reading this, you’re invited!
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7046440c-0ed5-469f-b722-2b6168a3b815_2000x1333.png)
People
======
Manifest is an event for the forecasting & prediction market community, and everyone else who’s interested. We’re aiming for about 500-700 attendees (you can check the markets [here](https://manifold.markets/Ernie/how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8)!).
Current speakers & special guests include:
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcb9bc269-1313-4ae7-a3a5-69677b6a6cdd_2000x1628.png)
Content
=======
Everything’s optional, and there’ll always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently. Like last year, we’ll host a mix of talks from experts, attendee-run workshops, and fun side events. We’re especially excited about attendee-run sessions — people loved hosting their own and attending their friends’. Topics range from:
* forecasting in journalism & government
* legalizing prediction markets
* AI forecasting (& AIs making forecasts)
* the case *against* forecasting/prediction markets
* adjacent experimental stuff (impact certificates, quadratic voting, etc)
…and *much, much* more!
Since Manifest is [forecasted to be bigger this year](https://manifold.markets/Ernie/how-many-people-will-attend-manifes-25d90d0299f8), we’re putting extra effort into making it easier for the right people to connect. We’ll have interest-specific meetups for politics, journalism, AI, mechanism design, etc — and
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