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ARC Prize 2024-2025 results
webarcprize.org·arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025-results-analysis
ARC Prize is a major AI benchmark competition testing abstract reasoning; its results are closely watched by the AI safety community as a potential indicator of progress toward AGI-level capabilities and associated risk thresholds.
Metadata
Importance: 72/100blog postanalysis
Summary
Comprehensive analysis of the ARC Prize competition results for 2024-2025, evaluating AI systems' performance on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark designed to test general fluid intelligence. The results provide insight into the current state of AI reasoning capabilities and how close frontier models are to human-level performance on novel problem-solving tasks.
Key Points
- •ARC benchmark tests fluid intelligence by requiring novel visual pattern recognition and rule inference that cannot be solved by memorization alone
- •Results reveal the gap between current AI systems and human-level performance on abstract reasoning tasks, serving as a measure of general intelligence progress
- •Competition results help calibrate expectations about AI capability thresholds and timelines for achieving human-level reasoning
- •Performance trends across the 2024-2025 period indicate the pace at which frontier models are closing the gap on this difficult benchmark
- •ARC-AGI serves as a canary metric for the AI safety community to track when systems approach general problem-solving capabilities
Cited by 3 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Reasoning and Planning | Capability | 65.0 |
| AI Capability Threshold Model | Analysis | 72.0 |
| Eval Saturation & The Evals Gap | Approach | 65.0 |
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By [Mike Knoop](https://x.com/mikeknoop)
Published 05 Dec 2025
# ARC Prize 2025 Results & Analysis
## Year of the Refinement Loop
We've officially wrapped Year 2 of ARC Prize! While the Grand Prize remains unclaimed, we're excited to announce the [ARC Prize 2025 Score and Paper winners](https://arcprize.org/competitions/2025/) and share new analysis on AGI progress based on ARC-AGI in 2025.
#### Competition Progress
First, the Kaggle competition results. In total, [1,455 teams submitted 15,154 entries](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2025) for ARC Prize 2025 - nearly identical to ARC Prize 2024. The top Kaggle score winner reached a new SOTA on the ARC-AGI-2 private dataset of 24% for $0.20/task.
We also had 90 papers submitted, up from 47 last year – and many of them are impressively strong! Due to the exceptional quality, we decided to expand the paper prizes to include 5 additional runners-up and recognize 8 additional honorable mentions.
We are proud to say: all ARC Prize 2025 winning solutions and papers are open-source.
#### Industry Progress
We've seen material progress in 2025 on ARC-AGI-2 from commercial frontier AI systems and bespoke model refinement solutions. As of today, the top verified commercial model, Opus 4.5 (Thinking, 64k), scores 37.6% for $2.20/task. The top verified refinement solution, built on Gemini 3 Pro and authored by Poetiq, scores 54% for $30/task.
Over the past year, ARC-AGI has been reported on model cards by all 4 major AI labs to benchmark frontier AI reasoning: [OpenAI](https://youtu.be/SKBG1sqdyIU?t=304), [xAI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbNODZwQQuw&t=2506s), [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-5#:~:text=Evaluating%20Claude%20Opus%204.5), and [Google DeepMind](https://deepmind.google/models/gemini/pro/#:~:text=Visual%20reasoning%20puzzles-,ARC%2DAGI%2D2,-ARC%20Prize%20Verified).
In 2024, the ARC-AGI benchmark [pinpointed](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) the arrival of **"AI reasoning systems"** and drove early explanatory analysis. We're only one year into the deployment of AI reasoning systems, a new technology we consider on par with the invention of LLMs. ARC has helped us understand the capabilities and pace of scaling this new paradigm.
Now in 2025, ARC-AGI is being used to demonstrate **"refinement loops"**. From an information theory perspective, [refinement is intelligence](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.8599v4). While we still need new ideas to achieve AGI, ARC has catalyzed several now open-source refinement approaches ( [documented below](https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025-results-analysis#open-source-examples)). I anticipate these will push AI reasoning further in 2026.
And now, let's meet the winners of this year's competition progress prizes.
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## ARC Prize 2025 Winn
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