Impact of AI on Cyber Threat from Now to 2027 – NCSC Assessment

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 An NCSC assessment highlighting the impacts on cyber threat from AI developments between now and 2027. Elise Racine & The Bigger Picture / https://betterimagesofai.org NCSC assessment

 NCSC Assessment (NCSC-A) is the authoritative voice on the cyber threat to the UK. We combine source information – classified intelligence, industry knowledge, academic material and open source – to provide independent key judgements that inform policy decision making and improve UK cyber security. We work closely with government, industry and international partners for expert input into our assessments.

 NCSC-A is part of the Professional Heads of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA). PHIA leads the development of the profession through analytical tradecraft, professional standards, and building and sustaining a cross-government community.

 This report uses formal probabilistic language (see yardstick) from NCSC-A product to inform readers about the near-term impact on the cyber threat from AI. To find out more about NCSC-A, please contact the NCSC directly . 

 How likely is a 'realistic possibility'?

 Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA) probability yardstick 

 NCSC Assessment uses the PHIA probability yardstick every time we make an assessment, judgement, or prediction. The terms used correspond to the likelihood ranges below:

 

 Key judgements

 Artificial intelligence (AI) will almost certainly continue to make elements of cyber intrusion operations more effective and efficient, leading to an increase in frequency and intensity of cyber threats.

 
 There will almost certainly be a digital divide between systems keeping pace with AI-enabled threats and a large proportion that are more vulnerable, making cyber security at scale increasingly important to 2027 and beyond.

 
 Assuming a lag, or no change to cyber security mitigations, there is a realistic possibility of critical systems becoming more vulnerable to advanced threat actors by 2027. Keeping pace with 'frontier AI' capabilities will almost certainly be critical to cyber resilience for the decade to come.

 
 Proliferation of AI-enabled cyber tools will highly likely expand access to AI-enabled intrusion capability to an expanded range of state and non-state actors.

 
 The growing incorporation of AI models and systems across the UK’s technology base, and particularly within critical national infrastructure (CNI), almost certainly presents an increased attack surface for adversaries to exploit.

 
 Insufficient cyber security will almost certainly increase opportunity for capable state-linked actors and cyber criminals to misuse AI to support offensive activities.

 
 Context

 This report builds on NCSC Assessment of near-term impact of AI on cyber threat published in January 2024. It highlights the assessment of the most significant impacts on cyber threat from AI develo

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