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Multipolar Research Projects - AI Impacts
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Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
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Part of AI Impacts' broader research agenda; useful for those studying competitive AI development scenarios and coordination problems as alternatives to single-actor AI takeover models.
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Importance: 42/100homepagereference
Summary
This AI Impacts page outlines proposed research projects focused on multipolar AI scenarios, where multiple powerful AI systems or actors compete rather than a single dominant system emerging. It identifies open questions and research directions relevant to understanding coordination failures, competitive dynamics, and safety implications of multipolar futures.
Key Points
- •Focuses on research questions specific to multipolar AI scenarios involving multiple competing powerful AI systems or actors
- •Identifies gaps in understanding how competitive dynamics between AI systems or developers affect safety outcomes
- •Explores coordination challenges and potential failure modes in worlds without a single dominant AI or actor
- •Connects to broader AI Impacts research agenda on forecasting and understanding transformative AI trajectories
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Safety Multi-Actor Strategic Landscape | Analysis | 59.0 |
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This list currently consists of research projects suggested at the [Multipolar AI workshop](http://aiimpacts.org/event-multipolar-ai-workshop-with-robin-hanson/ "Event: Multipolar AI workshop with Robin Hanson") we held on January 26 2015.
Relatively concrete projects are marked \[concrete\]. These are more likely to already include specific questions to answer and feasible methods to answer them with. Other ‘projects’ are more like open questions, or broad directions for inquiry.
Projects are divided into three sections:
1. Paths to multipolar scenarios
2. What would happen in a multipolar scenario?
3. Safety in a multipolar scenario
Order is not otherwise relevant. The list is an inclusive collection of the topics suggested at the workshop, rather than a prioritized selection from a larger list.
Luke Muehlhauser’s [list of ‘superintelligence strategy’ research questions](http://lukemuehlhauser.com/some-studies-which-could-improve-our-strategic-picture-of-superintelligence/) contains further suggestions.
Contents
## List
### Paths to multipolar scenarios
**1.1 If we assume that AI software is similar to other software, what can we infer from observing contemporary software development? \[concrete\]** For instance, is progress in software performance generally smooth or jumpy? What is the distribution? What are typical degrees of concentration among developers? What are typical modes of competition? How far ahead does the leading team tend to be to their competitors? How often does the lead change? How much does a lead in a subsystem produce a lead overall? How much do non-software factors influence who has the lead? How likely is a large player like Google—with its pre-existing infrastructure—to be the frontrunner in a random new area that they decide to compete in?
A large part of this project would be collecting what is known about contemporary software development. This information would provide one view on how AI progress might plausibly unfold. Combined with several such views, this might inform predictions on issues like abruptness, competition and involved players.
**1.2 If the military is involved in AI development, how would that affect our predictions? \[concrete\]** This is a variation on 1.1, and would similarly involve a large component of reviewing the nature of contemporary military projects.
**1.3 If industry were to be largely responsible for AI development, how would that affect our predictions? \[concrete\]** This is a variation on 1.2, and would similarly involve a large component of reviewing the nature of contemporary industrial projects.
**1.4** **If academia were to be largely responsible for AI development, how would that affect our predictions? \[concrete\]** This is a variation on 1.2, and would similarly involve a large component of reviewing the nature of contemporary academic projects.
**1.5 Survey AI experts on the likelihood of AI emerging in the military, business or academia, and on the likely size
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