Skip to content
Longterm Wiki
Back

Kalshi - Prediction Market Platform (Wikipedia)

web

Credibility Rating

3/5
Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia

Relevant background for AI safety researchers interested in prediction markets as epistemic tools for forecasting AI risks or policy outcomes; Kalshi is a primary real-money regulated venue but this Wikipedia article is a general reference rather than AI-safety-specific content.

Metadata

Importance: 22/100wiki pagereference

Summary

Wikipedia article on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market exchange in the United States that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Kalshi became the first federally regulated prediction market in the US after receiving CFTC approval in 2020, enabling trading on events ranging from economics to politics.

Key Points

  • Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, approved in 2020
  • Users can trade binary contracts on real-world event outcomes, including economic indicators, weather, and politics
  • Prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom to generate probability estimates, which can inform forecasting and decision-making
  • Kalshi has faced regulatory battles, including over political event contracts, highlighting tensions between prediction markets and regulators
  • As a legitimate regulated venue, Kalshi represents growing institutional acceptance of prediction markets as information tools

Cited by 1 page

PageTypeQuality
Kalshi (Prediction Market)Organization25.0

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Feb 25, 2026130 KB
Kalshi - Wikipedia Jump to content From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia American prediction betting site Kalshi Inc. Company type Private Industry Sports betting , Prediction Betting Founded 2018 &#59; 8 years ago  ( 2018 ) Founders Tarek Mansour Luana Lopes Lara  [ pt ] Headquarters 594 Broadway New York , NY 10012 U.S. [ 1 ] Website kalshi .com Kalshi Inc. is a web-based prediction market platform based in Manhattan , New York City. Launched in July 2021, the platform is used primarily for traditional sports betting , which constitutes more than 90% of the activity on the site [ 2 ] [ 3 ] and 89% of the site's revenue in 2025. [ 4 ] Activity on the site is described as "heavily tied to the sports calendar" by analysts. [ 3 ] To a smaller extent, the platform is also used to place bets on future events, including economic indicators , cultural events, and most controversially, political outcomes for which the platform received much media attention. The site has been involved in several controversies and lawsuits regarding the legality of its political betting markets and the ethics of allowing wagers on sensitive geopolitical issues. [ 5 ] Concerns over election integrity and decreasing public trust in the democratic process caused by election betting were raised by consumer advocacy groups and politicians. Scholars have challenged that Kalshi efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes. [ 6 ] History In 2018, Kalshi was established by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, [ 7 ] two financial analysts. Initially, the project was briefly known as "Kownig". [ 8 ] In November 2020, Kalshi attained a license from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission , registering the platform as a designated contract market. [ 9 ] [ 10 ] [ 11 ] The site was publicly launched in July 2021. [ 12 ] Beginning in 2022, Kalshi’s attempts to offer political and election-related betting faced sustained legal and regulatory challenges from the CFTC. [ 13 ] [ 14 ] [ 15 ] The CFTC delayed decisions on these contracts, questioning whether they constituted valid risk-hedging tools and if they served the public interest. Internal disagreement emerged, with Commissioner Caroline Pham dissenting and arguing the contracts were not prohibited and did not require a public-interest test. [ 16 ] In 2023, another months-long legal dispute began between Kalshi and the CFTC. Kalshi repeated that its contracts serve the public interest. In contrast, the CFTC contends that these contracts constitute illegal gambling and that it lacks the resources to oversee them effectively. Chairman Rostin Behnam has cautioned that allowing election contracts could "ultimately commoditize and degrade the integrity" of the electoral process. [ 17 ] Despite revised proposals allowing very large bets by hedge funds 

... (truncated, 130 KB total)
Resource ID: fdf2805c72fb1b8d | Stable ID: NDA0MTViOW