Nuño Sempere - The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute Blog

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# Nuño Sempere

- 11 posts


[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

31 May 2023

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## [Relative values for animal suffering and ACE Top Charities](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/relative-values-for-animal-suffering/)

tl;dr: I present relative estimates for animal suffering and 2022 top Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) charities. I am doing this to showcase a new tool from the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) and to present an alternative to ACE’s current rubric-based approach.

Introduction and goals

At QURI, we’

[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

20 Mar 2023

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## [Some estimation work in the horizon](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/some-estimation-work-in-the-horizon/)

Too much work for any one group

[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

10 Mar 2023

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## [Estimation for sanity checks](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/estimation-for-sanity-checks/)

I feel very warmly about using relatively quick estimates to carry out sanity checks, i.e., to quickly check whether something is clearly off, whether some decision is clearly overdetermined, or whether someone is just bullshitting. This is in contrast to Fermi estimates, which aim to arrive at an estimate

[Ozzie Gooen](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/ozzie/) / [Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

09 Mar 2023

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## [Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/winners-of-the-squiggle-experimentation/)

In the second half of 2022, we announced the Squiggle Experimentation Challenge and a $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths. For the first contest, we got three long entries. For the second we got five, but most were fairly short. This post

[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

07 Mar 2023

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## [Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/use-of-id-bet-on-the-ea-forum-is/)

Epistemic status: much ado about nothing.

[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

09 Feb 2023

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## [Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/posts/straightforwardly-eliciting-probabilities/)

I explain two straightforward strategies for eliciting probabilities from language models, and in particular for GPT-3, provide code, and give my thoughts on what I would do if I were being more hardcore about this.

Straightforward strategies

Look at the probability of yes/no completion

Given a binary question, like

[Nuño Sempere](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/author/nuno/)

07 Feb 2023

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## [Six Challenges with Criticism & Evaluation Around EA

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