Manifold (Prediction Market) - Wikipedia
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Wikipedia
Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform relevant to AI safety as a tool for forecasting AI-related events and risks; it has received funding from EA-aligned sources and hosted forecasting conferences attended by prominent AI safety figures like Eliezer Yudkowsky.
Metadata
Importance: 22/100wiki pagereference
Summary
Manifold is an online prediction market platform founded in December 2021, using play-money currency ('Mana') for competitive forecasting. It received funding from FTX Future Fund and Survival and Flourishing Fund, and has hosted forecasting conferences featuring AI safety researchers. The platform briefly introduced real-money betting via 'sweepcash' before discontinuing it in 2025.
Key Points
- •Founded December 2021 by Austin Chen and James/Stephen Grugett; uses play-money 'Mana' currency with a Uniswap-based automated market maker.
- •Received $1.5M from FTX Future Fund and $340K+ from Survival and Flourishing Fund, both EA-aligned funding sources.
- •Hosted 'Manifest' forecasting conferences in Berkeley featuring AI safety figures including Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robin Hanson, and Nate Silver.
- •Real-money 'sweepcash' feature launched September 2024 but was sunset March 2025, reverting to play-money only.
- •Relevant to AI safety community as a tool for aggregating probabilistic forecasts on AI development and policy outcomes.
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Apr 21, 20264 KB
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Online reputation-based prediction market
Manifold Available in English Founded December 2021 ; 4 years ago  ( December 2021 ) Founder(s) Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett URL manifold .markets Current status Active
Manifold , formerly known as Manifold Markets , is an online prediction market platform. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. [ 3 ] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars . [ 4 ]
Manifold introduced real money betting using 'sweepcash' in September 2024, but this was sunset on March 28, 2025. [ 5 ] [ 6 ]
History
[ edit ]
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. Stephen Grugett is the current CEO of the organization. [ 7 ]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. [ 8 ] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, [ 9 ] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. [ 10 ]
In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California . Attendees included Nate Silver , Robin Hanson , Richard Hanania , Eliezer Yudkowsky , Robert Miles, and Destiny . [ 8 ] The conference was hosted again in 2024 and 2025. [ 11 ]
Market structure
[ edit ]
The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap". [ 12 ] Formerly, Manifold supported Sweepcash which could be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee. [ 13 ] One unit of Sweepcash was equivalent to $1 USD.
See also
[ edit ]
Polymarket
Kalshi
Metaculus
PredictIt
References
[ edit ]
^ "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal" . Vox . 7 August 2023. Archived from the original on 2023-08-31 . Retrieved 2023-08-31 . Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out.
^ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets" . Nieman Lab . Archived from the original on 2023-06-03 . Retrieved 2023-08-31 .
^ Taylor, Michael. "Taylor: Can you see into the future? Online prediction markets can — and they let you bet on it" . San Antonio Express-News . Retrieved 6 February 2024 .
^ Henshall, Will (2024-02-14). "Meet the People Making Actual Bets on Love" . TIME . Retrieved 2024-02-14 .
^ "Mana forever!" . manifoldmarkets.notion.site . Retrieved 2025-02-19 .
^ "Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024? "Looks like it launched!" " . Manifold . Retrieved 2026-01-31 .
^ Richard Hanania . "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, Ja
... (truncated, 4 KB total)Resource ID:
3d2f021977b9aa9b | Stable ID: sid_XeoL54J3zw