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Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines

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2023·EA Forum·forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ByBBqwRXWqX5m9erL/updat...

Authors

Misha_Yagudin·JonathanMann·NunoSempere

Credibility Rating

3/5
Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: EA Forum

Samotsvety is a forecasting group with a strong track record; their AGI timeline updates are closely followed by the EA and AI safety communities as a calibrated signal of when transformative AI might arrive.

Metadata

Importance: 62/100analysis

Summary

Samotsvety, a forecasting group known for accurate predictions, presents an updated probabilistic forecast for when AGI will be developed. The post revises earlier timeline estimates based on new evidence and reasoning, providing specific probability distributions across different time horizons.

Key Points

  • •Samotsvety is a respected forecasting collective that aggregates expert predictions on high-stakes questions including AI development timelines.
  • •The update reflects new evidence or developments that have shifted the group's probability estimates for AGI arrival dates.
  • •Forecasts are presented as probability distributions rather than point estimates, capturing uncertainty across near-term and long-term scenarios.
  • •The post likely engages with competing forecasts and methodologies from other forecasters and organizations in the AI timeline space.
  • •Timeline estimates from credible forecasting groups inform EA community planning, resource allocation, and urgency assessments for AI safety work.

Cached Content Preview

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# Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines
By Misha_Yagudin, JonathanMann, NunoSempere
Published: 2023-01-24
Previously: [Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EG9xDM8YRz4JN4wMN/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts).

Our colleagues at [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) recently asked us to update our AI timelines estimate for their upcoming literature review on TAI timelines. We met on 2023-01-21 to discuss our predictions about when advanced AI systems will arrive.

Forecasts:
==========

Definition of AGI
-----------------

We used the following definition to determine the “moment at which AGI is considered to have arrived,” building on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/when-will-ai-pass-a-difficult-turing-test/):

> The moment that a system capable of passing the adversarial Turing test against a top-5%[^aqevy3x7sl] human who has access to experts on various topics is developed.

More concretely:

> A Turing test is said to be “adversarial” if the human judges make a good-faith attempt to unmask the AI as an impostor, and the human confederates make a good-faith attempt to demonstrate that they are humans.

> An AI is said to “pass” a Turing test if at least half of judges rated the AI as more human than at least third of the human confederates.

This definition of AGI is not unproblematic, e.g., [it’s possible that AGI could be unmasked long after its economic value and capabilities are very high](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/21/there-will-always-be-a-voigt-kampff-test/). We chose to use an imperfect definition and indicated to forecasters that they should interpret the definition not “as is” but “in spirit” to avoid annoying edge cases.

Individual forecasts
--------------------

<table><tbody><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">&nbsp;</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by 2030)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by 2050)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by 2100)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by this year) = 10%</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by this year) = 50%</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">P(AGI by this year) = 90%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom">F1</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom"><p>0.39</p></td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom"><p>0.75</p></td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom"><p>0.78</p></td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom"><p>2028</p></td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #cccccc;padding:2pt;vertical-align:bottom"><p>203

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