Philip Tetlock | Edge.org
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[Skip to main content](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1#main-content) Copyright © 2026 By Edge Foundation, Inc. All Rights Reserved. [](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock "View user profile.") Philip Tetlock Annenberg University Professor, University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, Psychology and Political Science; Author, Expert Political Judgment; (with Dan Gardner) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (forthcoming, Sept. 2015) PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the [Good Judgment Project](http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/), a multi-year forecasting study, He is the author of three books: _Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?;_ (with Aaron Belkin) _Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics_; and (with Dan Gardner) _Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction_(forthcoming, September 2015). His _Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?_ (2005) describes a twenty-year study in which 284 experts in many fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and other, and with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers, were asked to make 28,000 predictions about the future, finding that they were only slightly more accurate than chance, and worse than basic computer algorithms which was the recipient of the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. [Previous](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Previous")[Next](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Next") [Previous](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Previous")[Next](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Next") [Close](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Close")[Pause Slideshow](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Pause Slideshow")[Play Slideshow](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1# "Play Slideshow") [close](https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock?page=1#) | | | | --- | --- | | | |
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