Citation

AI Timelines - Footnote 12

contradicted70% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim mentions median estimates ranging from 2040s to 2070s, but the source mentions estimates ranging from 2030s to 2070s. The claim mentions that the range depends on how questions were framed, but the source does not explicitly state this.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/(1 check)

contradicted70%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The survey demonstrated significant variation across questions and methodologies, with median estimates ranging from 2040s to 2070s depending on how questions were framed.

Note: The claim mentions median estimates ranging from 2040s to 2070s, but the source mentions estimates ranging from 2030s to 2070s. The claim mentions that the range depends on how questions were framed, but the source does not explicitly state this.

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Record ID: page:ai-timelines:fn12