Citation

AI Timelines - Footnote 22

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Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states that the review identified Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the most compelling outside-view model as of 2023. However, the source states that the Epoch AI team found Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the best-rated outside-view model. The claim also omits that the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

epoch.ai/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelines(1 check)

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: <EntityLink id="epoch-ai">Epoch AI</EntityLink>'s literature review noted that inside-view models tend to predict shorter timelines than outside-view approaches, with heavier tails and more probabilit…

Note: The claim states that the review identified Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the most compelling outside-view model as of 2023. However, the source states that the Epoch AI team found Cotra's biological anchors as the most compelling inside-view model and Davidson's semi-informative priors as the best-rated outside-view model. The claim also omits that the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.

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Record ID: page:ai-timelines:fn22