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AI Timelines - Footnote 27

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim mentions that some long-term forecasts tracked closer to observed compute and capability trends, but the source does not explicitly state this. It only mentions that some forecasts proved overly optimistic. The source does not explicitly mention that Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil used quantitative trend extrapolation.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The AI field experienced multiple periods of reduced activity and funding in the 1970s and 1980s following forecasts that proved overly optimistic about near-term capabilities. Some long-term forecast…

Note: The claim mentions that some long-term forecasts tracked closer to observed compute and capability trends, but the source does not explicitly state this. It only mentions that some forecasts proved overly optimistic. The source does not explicitly mention that Hans Moravec and Ray Kurzweil used quantitative trend extrapolation.

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